Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

[Matty]

The model likes all of these today:

MIN
TBR
MIL
TOR
NYM
CHW
TEX

Will wait until the afternoon to lock them in as most lines seem to be moving against me.

GL today gentlemen ⚾

 

[Matty]

I really wish ChiSox weren't a play, but even after removing their 3 injured batters (who account for over half the team's batting WAR), the model has them as a +145 home dog. I have access to +150 which is a play.

 

[Matty]

The model likes all of these today:

MIN
TBR
MIL
TOR
NYM
CHW
TEX

Alright, so waiting for better prices has backfired a bit. We lost the Mets and Brewers. Official plays are:

MIN +105
TB -110
TOR -235
CHW +150
TEX +114

 

[Matty]

Adding

MIA +165
STL +110
SEA -120

Full slate of plays for
Friday April 13:

MIN +105
TB -110
TOR -235
CHW +150
TEX +114
MIA +165
STL +110
SEA -120

YTD 37-49 -8.77u $908.66

 

[Vegas Dave]

Matty Rain: "I've compiled a team of AI bots that meticulously crunches the numbers using advanced algorithms to solve for win probabilities and how those measure up against current betting lines to find positive expected value situations for me to profitably bet on."

The bot team calculating the ChiSox win probabilities every day:

In honor of the new emoji I feel like we also need concave head guy or hamster head guy for all the times they lose.

 

[Matty]

Chris Flexen blows goats

I have proof

 

[Matty]

Jays down 6-2 to the motherfucking Rockies

This night feels like another catastrophe in the making

 

[Matty]

Make that 7-2

 

[Matty]

Saturday April 14

DET +115
MIL +125
TEX +125
OAK +110
TBR -105
SDP +165

I'm a very negative person and I have zero confidence in any of these.

 

[Vegas Dave]

I really wish ChiSox weren't a play, but even after removing their 3 injured batters (who account for over half the team's batting WAR), the model has them as a +145 home dog. I have access to +150 which is a play.

 

[Matty]

Why aren't you all getting rich fading those useless fucks?

 

[Matty]

At this point I'm scared of missing out on a ChiSox win. As of right now they're not a play tomorrow. 😬

 

[FairWarning]

Why aren't you all getting rich fading those useless fucks?

Crochet is the one I’m a little hesitant on fading, but this Reds lineup is also the best he’s faced. I’ve mainly played the team totals vs Chicago since it’s less vig - last night was 4.5-120, won early. I’ve been Dodger TT’s over at 5 or less at home also.

For the Sox, if Sheets doesn’t hit, they don’t score. They are worse than Oakland.

 

[Matty]

Friday April 13:

MIN +105
TB -110
TOR -235
CHW +150
TEX +114
MIA +165
STL +110
SEA -120

YTD 37-49 -8.77u $908.66

4-4 -1.11u (-$11.43)

YTD 41-53 -9.88u $897.23

Saturday April 14

DET +115
MIL +125
TEX +125
OAK +110
TBR -105
SDP +165

 

[Matty]

@FairWarning I have the White Sox as the 3rd worst team in the league, almost tied for 2nd with the Nats. A's are 4th.

 

[Matty]

Oh dear.

After adjusting matchups to reflect injuries/lineups, the model has the Reds as a -143 road fave. Which means fading the White Sox. I'm terrified.

Adding

CIN -130

🙈🙈🙈

@Vegas Dave hold me

 

[Tron]

Oh dear.

After adjusting matchups to reflect injuries/lineups, the model has the Reds as a -143 road fave. Which means fading the White Sox. I'm terrified.

Adding

CIN -130

🙈🙈🙈

@Vegas Dave hold me

Weird because White Sox are pinging on my radar. Phillies/Pirates Over, too.

 

[Matty]

The Sox's Jimenez/Robert/Moncada trio is worth 7.4 WAR according to my 2024 projections. Reds are missing just one significant position player in Friedl (1.5 projected WAR.) Lodolo's projected WAR is also higher than Crochet's (2.7 vs 1.3). But yeah Crochet's been lights out so far.

I dunno. I'm forcing myself to blindly trust the model.