Hooligans Sportsbook

Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

Follow
Matty
Oh dear.

After adjusting matchups to reflect injuries/lineups, the model has the Reds as a -143 road fave. Which means fading the White Sox. I'm terrified.

Adding

CIN -130

🙈🙈🙈

@Vegas Dave hold me
Click to expand...
Well that looks pretty darn good now. Crochet got squeezed on a couple of pitches that would have got him out of the inning.
 
I'm probably back on the ChiSox bandwagon tomorrow. Just checked the matchup and I have them as a +126 dog, huge gap with the actual price right now. +148 at FanDuel. Not sure if I should lock it in now or wait.
 
Here's something sobering for y'all to ponder. Here's a series of 2500 coin flips that pay a 2%, 3%, 4%, 5% and 10% premium when you win (i.e. the dark blue line shows the results when you get paid $10.20 for a win, and you lose $10 for a loss, and the purple line shows the results if you were paid $11 for a win and still only lost $10 when you lose the coin flip):
1713054790545.png


Looks good eh? Tidy profit after 2500 flips, no matter how small or big your edge. That's cool. Now let's try flipping the same coin 2500 more times:
1713054698858.png


Nothing's changed, it's the same coin and the same payouts. It's just another random series of 2500 coin flips.

Variance is ridiculously large. :handshake:

(To be fair, I ran around a hundred simulations and picked the two most extreme series to post here. Most series of 2500 coin flips are not that wild.)
 
Matty
Here's something sobering for y'all to ponder. Here's a series of 2500 coin flips that pay a 2%, 3%, 4%, 5% and 10% premium when you win (i.e. the dark blue line shows the results when you get paid $10.20 for a win, and you lose $10 for a loss, and the purple line shows the results if you were paid $11 for a win and still only lost $10 when you lose the coin flip):
View attachment 10284

Looks good eh? Tidy profit after 2500 flips, no matter how small or big your edge. That's cool. Now let's try flipping the same coin 2500 more times:
View attachment 10283

Nothing's changed, it's the same coin and the same payouts. It's just another random series of 2500 coin flips.

Variance is ridiculously large. :handshake:

(To be fair, I ran around a hundred simulations and picked the two most extreme series to post here. Most series of 2500 coin flips are not that wild.)
Click to expand...
FUKK MATH !!
 
Matty
4-4 -1.11u (-$11.43)

YTD 41-53 -9.88u $897.23

Saturday April 14

DET +115 :redx:
MIL +125 :greencheck:
TEX +125 :redx:
OAK +110 :redx:
TBR -105 :redx:
SDP +165 :redx:
Click to expand...

Matty
Oh dear.

After adjusting matchups to reflect injuries/lineups, the model has the Reds as a -143 road fave. Which means fading the White Sox. I'm terrified.

Adding

CIN -130 :greencheck:

🙈🙈🙈

@Vegas Dave hold me
Click to expand...

Matty
Adding for today:

STL -104 :redx:
Click to expand...
2-6 -3.84u -$39.55

YTD 43-59 -13.72u $857.68

THIS IS JUST VARIANCE AND RANDOMNESS AND SHIT

I'M DOING FINE

Seriously though, my old steam-chasing ways would've produced almost exactly the same plays yesterday. I'm not sure if that's reassuring or not, but I feel like it is.

Baseball, it's random af.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.