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Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

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Matty
I hedged my ChiSox play with a promo/risk-free same-game parlay bet at FanDuel. It's about to win:
same team parlay 20240414
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look they trademarked 'Same Game Parlay'
 
Here's another series of 2500 bets at 4% edge (i.e. a +100 bet that wins 52% of the time). Look at those downswings... -20 units within the first 150 bets or so, and the absolute low point comes at bet # 630, with a balance of $710. 1870 bets later, the initial balance is doubled. That's with flat $10 bets.

Shit is crazy. White Sox can't scare me.
white sox cant scare me
 
Matty
Using the updated WAR data, we like these for tomorrow:

MIN
PHI
TBR
HOU
ARI

Will confirm plays and prices tomorrow AM.
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I should've bet most of these last night. :facepalm

New WAR data seems much more in line with Vegas which is interesting. Right now the only clear play is:

TOR -110

Will grade yesterday's plays later.
 
Matty
Here's another series of 2500 bets at 4% edge (i.e. a +100 bet that wins 52% of the time). Look at those downswings... -20 units within the first 150 bets or so, and the absolute low point comes at bet # 630, with a balance of $710. 1870 bets later, the initial balance is doubled. That's with flat $10 bets.

Shit is crazy. White Sox can't scare me.
white sox cant scare me
Click to expand...
Variance is a crazy thing.

I sometimes think back on 2013, the year I gave playing poker semi-professionally a go. Wasn't a total failure, profited a little under $15K on the tourneys and cash games I played. Started my Amazon business shortly after that and no longer had cash to play with, had to re-invest it all into growing that.

What could have been. That year I made six day twos in tournaments that had massive prizes to first end with pocket kings all-in pre-flop. SIX. Three times ran into aces, three times dominating a smaller pair that wound up hitting its set.

That year also played the biggest tourney of my life, had won a $3500 seat in the WPT Main from a $350 satellite. Was among the chip leaders towards the end of Day 2 (3-day tourney) before losing a massive pot after getting all the chips in post-flop as a 76% favorite. That would have made me tourney chip leader. Guy who hit his 6-outer went on to finish 2nd for over $300K.

If any one of all of those Day 2s had gone differently, my whole life would have to. I win say $35K for 3rd or $110K for first and that gives me the bankroll and stability to fully commit, and who knows what might have happened?

But that's not just gambling, that's life in general. We all tend to take for granted how much of our lives are based on random chance. And I suppose most of us wound up in pretty favorable sims, so it's hard to complain. But FUKK one time let me just win a god damned tournament in 2013.
 
Vegas Dave
Variance is a crazy thing.

I sometimes think back on 2013, the year I gave playing poker semi-professionally a go. Wasn't a total failure, profited a little under $15K on the tourneys and cash games I played. Started my Amazon business shortly after that and no longer had cash to play with, had to re-invest it all into growing that.

What could have been. That year I made six day twos in tournaments that had massive prizes to first end with pocket kings all-in pre-flop. SIX. Three times ran into aces, three times dominating a smaller pair that wound up hitting its set.

That year also played the biggest tourney of my life, had won a $3500 seat in the WPT Main from a $350 satellite. Was among the chip leaders towards the end of Day 2 (3-day tourney) before losing a massive pot after getting all the chips in post-flop as a 76% favorite. That would have made me tourney chip leader. Guy who hit his 6-outer went on to finish 2nd for over $300K.

If any one of all of those Day 2s had gone differently, my whole life would have to. I win say $35K for 3rd or $110K for first and that gives me the bankroll and stability to fully commit, and who knows what might have happened?

But that's not just gambling, that's life in general. We all tend to take for granted how much of our lives are based on random chance. And I suppose most of us wound up in pretty favorable sims, so it's hard to complain. But FUKK one time let me just win a god damned tournament in 2013.
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Yah. Casper had a good post early in this thread. Whole poker careers can be attributed to postivie variance/luck. Mind you most people will run true to form, so to speak, but yes variance in poker and sports betting is much much larger than most people realize.
 
Matty
YTD 43-59 -13.72u $857.68

Sunday April 14

CHW +145 :redx:
MIA +130 :redx:
NYM +110 :greencheck:
SEA -140 :redx:
SDP +140 :greencheck:
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2-3 -1u (-$10.30)

YTD 45-62 -14.72u $847.38

Monday April 15

TOR -110
BAL -130
TEX EV
SFG -112
PHI -270
SDP EV

Not a single +dog with the updated WAR data. :ohmy: I'll probably be updating it once a week or so going forward.
 
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Vegas Dave
Reminds me of this post from the other day.


Even six perfectly optimized bots playing against each other in 500K poker hands have wildly different results. 500K hands isn't enough of a sample size! So WTF is 1K, 5K, 10K sports bets? You could very easily have a great model lose or a shit model win over a whole bunch of seasons and be well within standard deviation of outcomes.

It's all shenanigans.*

*It WAS all shenanigans until Matty Rain cracked the code. GameLivers one and all, BEAR WITNESS IN THIS THREAD !!
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Matty
Yah. Casper had a good post early in this thread. Whole poker careers can be attributed to postivie variance/luck. Mind you most people will run true to form, so to speak, but yes variance in poker and sports betting is much much larger than most people realize.
Click to expand...

OH CASPER DID DID HE?!?
 
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