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Why the Phillies will be 2011 WS Champs!

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MrMonkey
OK let's start the home year right today! Strong wind out my back window right now! Forecast calls for wind blowing out hard (20 to 20+ MPH) directly to right field foul pole!

Advantage then say the Phils ......... but wait ...... who hits the HRs? Rollins? Victorino? No Thome in lineup today! IMO Marlins have more bats capable of taking Hamels yard over RF wall! We shall see!
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I was looking at Hamels ground ball numbers last night, his groundball/flyball ratio was around 1.60 last year which is a career best and his numbers on kk/bb were the best of his career last year so he should keep these guys off the bases. Hopefully he can keep the ball down with this wind, and middle relief doesn't blow it til they hand it to Papelbon. Interesting article comparing what Hamels pending free agency will bring and the numbers Cain got from the Giants. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/4/4/2925582/cole-hamels-is-a-happy-man

Sanchez really didnt do anything after the all star break last year, he was 2-7 since the all star break and supposedly still had shoulder issues in spring training, he only pitched three games in the spring but he seemed to throw the ball well. I just hope the phillies bats wake up here today.

Malaga -1 this afternoon as well gentleman. Great to have some day games.
 
So it's a 3-3 start! Very early but starting stuff looking just as good as 2011 if not better (look at Joe Blanton last night, cross my fingers)! Hitting looking dismal so far as a whole! So what is surprising so far? Nothing! They just need some timing hitting (lacking in the playoffs last few years) to support the pitching!

Scheduling on paper looking friendly for games (46) through May with their injury woes! They have Mets (9), Padres (7), Cubs (6), Astros (2)! Phils need to beat the teams they are supposed to be right there! Good teams do this!
 
Phillies need to have an average record until September and then win 20 in row and get in the playoffs with momentum. Winning the division from early August and playing for fun the last two months doesn't work in winning championships.
 
Archie
I would see .1% chance of it happening that way.
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I dont think so either, But I thought I read somewhere that FA compensation in the form of draft picks was changing, so got me to thinking if more player for player trades would happen, since you wont end up with 2 draft picks. Also dont like Philly's lineup, guess we will have to wait and see on Howard and Utley.
 
good points, I didn't realize Hamels was a FA after this year.

yeah they are changing the whole compensation for type 1 and 2 FA's thanks to Theo, Beane, and the Rays.

I didn't realize how bad the Phillies farm system was till looking it up just now.
 
Yes, the Phils farm system is horrific! Hamels has to be signed by the Phils! Draft picks can take years and Halladay and Lee will be 35 and 34 years old!

GM Amaro has done IMO a good job but probably wish he didn't say "Hamels isn't a CY Young winner" (comparing him to Lee and the 125 mil he got) when taking bout resigning him! Amaro probably thinking of Weaver's 5 yr 85 mil contract and Cole like a twin in comparison!

Probably could have gotten Cole last year at 5 and 100 mil but don't even know if 5 and 120 mil will get it done unless Hamel's gives the Phils a discount? The longer it goes on, the worst it gets for Amaro!

Talk too around here of late is the Phils getting a big local TV contract in couple years with $$$ everywhere! As old as the Phils are I see there payroll going over 200 mil when this happens since they have no farm system and need big name FAs to keep selling out every game!

Give him 5 and 125 mil with a 6th year club option at 25 mil! NOW!
 
Phils are just a few million dollars sort of exceeding the salary cap and paying a luxury tax. So any deal they would give Hamels now would come with a 20-30ish % escalator on it.....

Phils sooner or later are gonna have one hell of a "rebuilding" phase to deal with
 
Archie
Phils are just a few million dollars sort of exceeding the salary cap and paying a luxury tax. So any deal they would give Hamels now would come with a 20-30ish % escalator on it.....

Phils sooner or later are gonna have one hell of a "rebuilding" phase to deal with
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Yes, I think 172 mil payroll and I think 177-178 mil cap for luxury tax! Archie, do you know if they sign Hamels this year, does the tax kick in now or for 2013? Cole is sign for 2012 already!

So Lee's goes up 4 mil and Pap 2 mil for 2013! Say Hamels goes up 10 mil (15 to 25 in 2013) Kendrick 1.5 mil! Pence probably gets 5 mil more in arbitration! That's roughly 22.5 mil to 195! Blanton's 10.5 mil and Polanco's 6.4 comes off! Roughly back to 177-178!

Thing is Blanton's replacement will probably be some cheap minor leaguer or Kendrick! Wigginton will have to come through more at 3B and then does Utley come back to play? That's 15 mil counted for 2013!

Their biggest concern from what I see is Victorino is a FA and getting 9.5 mil now so he needs to be replaced unless Utley doesn't come back! Also Ruiz is FA and has few good years left but he will come cheap!

Now if they say FU to the luxury tax for say 10 mil the Phils should be fine!
 
wow, it is complictated MrMonkey

never thought the buyouts would factor into the yearly cap numbers for instance.

its not so bad for a first time offender... 20%

I really think they need to institute salary floors as well for teams/owners like the pirates that are able to make money but not field competitive teams because they are cheap
 
6-7 so far but maybe the thread should read "Why the Phillies Won't be 2012 WS Champs." Beat lowly SD 2-0 with a SacFly and Passed Ball scoring runs! Will need better against quality teams!

Charlie 0-2 IMO now after SF loss on Wed night! Here's the blog that hits it on the nail from listening to game!

Managing Blunders
There was a peculiar managing decision in the 11th when Manuel elected to pinch hit Jim Thome for Cliff Lee with Ruiz on third and one out. The decision to hit for Lee there isn’t completely unheard of — you’re in a tight game and as a manager you have to take a shot at scoring a late run when you have the chance.

What made the move was questionable is what Manuel did when Bruce Bochy opted to go to the left-handed Javier Lopez. With Mayberry and Polanco on the bench, Manuel chose to stick with Thome, who promptly struck out. Then Manuel chose to pinch hit for Pierre, who hits .305 against lefties for his career, with Mayberry. The Giants brought in the right-handed Clay Hensley, who retired Mayberry and ended the inning. The Giants would score the winning run in the bottom half of the frame. In tight games, every move is magnified, and the Phillies can’t afford to have Manuel make questionable moves like this.

Too much trust in Thome by Manual when IMO Polanco probably should have PH! You go with the RH bat! Then he puts Mayberry in who hasn't hit since the first day of spring training and Pierre has been one of their best players! Yes Thome and Mayberry can drive the ball better for SacFly but first you have to make contact! Mayberry by the way was 0-2 and Pierre 2-4 lifetime against Hensley!
 
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