Hooligans Sportsbook

Random thoughts

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To be a Winner might have to listen to a pro!


My methods begin with my basic knowledge of how sports betting works and then go to straight mathematics.

The knowledge is that bettors like favorites (and, to a lesser extent OVERS). That is reflected in the lines. Lines don't reflect the expected outcome of games, they reflect bettor psychology. The books want to balance their action and they know that the psychology of bettors causes them to lean more towards big favorites than they really should. That often leads to lines being skewed and leaving good value on the underdog side.

That basic fact is fundamental to almost everything I do.

When I want to do a research project, I start with a theory. An example might be, I believe I would make money if I bet every moneyline dog of +200 or greater on every NCAAF game?

I start a spreadsheet (I just use a basic Excel spreadsheet). For something like that it would be a very simple set-up. I just need to record the date, team (distinguishing HOME vs away) and the best line I can find (line shopping between strategic books is extremely important). After the games I record if the bet would have won or lost and I track the units.

The important thing is to collect a lot of data. If a system is making money after 14 plays, that's not good enough. It's statistically insignificant. That's why I just shake my head when I see a capper talking about being 7-2 for their last 9 picks or something like that. Those kinds of statistics are meaningless. Something needs to work for at least a couple hundred picks before it can be considered a genuine pattern. So that's what I need in a research project. It has to be profitable after at least a couple hundred picks and then I can start putting real money behind it.

That is my basic methodology. I collect a large sample of data. I break it down in some different ways (i.e. are HOME DOGS doing any differently than away dogs? Is it working better using lines of +400 or more rather than +200 or more). I look for what's making money long term.

I hope to bring a lot of specifics about this stuff to this forum over the coming months. I'm testing some stuff right now on MLB alternate runlines that I plan to start transferring to the Sports forum soon.

And I've got some solid stuff on NFL and NCAAF when the time comes.

So keep your eyes open around here. It would be great to get your thoughts on some of the tests. I also intend to post real picks on theories that are already well-tested.
 
Matty
Muddy correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you were also a SBR mod circa ~2005. Muddy that was a strong year for ya.
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Yes exactly - that's why I figger 2005. I sounded all fresh-faced and anxious to help and ready to save the world. That was me when I decided to be a mod at SBR. I was thinking we were going to build something special in the industry.

That attitude didn't last long. I think it was over by 2006.

Although they did end up with something special over there - just a different kind of special.

:retarded::retarded::retarded::retarded:
 
From my window, I just watched a girl walk by on the street below. The entire time she was in my view she was texting. She covered probably 70 yards, never looked up. Just texting. I don't doubt she is still walking and texting as we speak.

It got me thinking of all the things that could happen to her. If there was an open manhole cover in her path, she probably would go right down without ever knowing it was coming. Someone could probably approach her with boltcutters and snip off her pinky finger and she wouldn't realize what was going on until she felt the pain.

I could see how she could easily - and I mean EASILY - have a head-on collision with a similar girl coming in the other direction. Splat.

I wonder if Frank Darabont was watching a girl like this when he got his inspiration for The Walking Dead.
 
Good call Muddaaaay!

Open manhole covers on the sidewalk are a serious problem in Mississauga, especially in winter with 3 feet of snow making the holes seem invisible.

Head on texting collisions are likely not covered by insurance - young people today are a fucking menace, eh pal?
 
Mudcat
From my window, I just watched a girl walk by on the street below. The entire time she was in my view she was texting. She covered probably 70 yards, never looked up. Just texting. I don't doubt she is still walking and texting as we speak.

It got me thinking of all the things that could happen to her. If there was an open manhole cover in her path, she probably would go right down without ever knowing it was coming. Someone could probably approach her with boltcutters and snip off her pinky finger and she wouldn't realize what was going on until she felt the pain.

I could see how she could easily - and I mean EASILY - have a head-on collision with a similar girl coming in the other direction. Splat.

I wonder if Frank Darabont was watching a girl like this when he got his inspiration for The Walking Dead.
Click to expand...

:mudcat:
 
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