Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

[Matty]

 

[roguejuror]

@roguejuror I apologize if I seemed rude earlier. I was making fun of my shitty record, not doubting your support. ✌️

yeah I know I was just joking with Shorty, but I do bet some of the plays just because I wouldn't follow baseball otherwise, not all of them just one or two when I catch them in time and have time to watch

 

[Matty]

I missed a whole bunch of games, sorry.

Thursday July 4

FULL GAMES
SDP EV (4.3% edge)
BAL -142 (POD - 13% edge)

Adding

FULL GAMES
ARI +112 (12% edge)

That's it for today I'm afraid, no FF plays. O's are the POD.

FULL GAMES
2-1 +0.58u
YTD 269-268 -6.76u

FIRST FIVE
YTD 143-116-35 +10.98u

POD 20-19-1 -0.58u

Kelly bankroll after day 59 - $153.99
New Kelly bet amount - $4.62

 

[Matty]

No bet on the early game

 

[Matty]

Friday July 5

FULL GAMES
NYM +120 (7% edge) (sorry McBalls)
CLE -184 (9% edge)
DET +106 (7.5% edge)

FIRST FIVE
WSH +150 (3.4% edge)
CHW +104 (4.3% edge)
DET EV (11.9% edge - POD candidate)
PHI +118 (3.2% edge)

 

[Matty]

Adding

FULL GAMES
KCR -170 (8.8% edge)
MIN -150 (8.4% edge)
BAL -165 (8.3% edge)

FIRST FIVE
MIN -165 (11.7% edge)
BAL -156 (POD - 14.4% edge)
SDP EV (6.1% edge)

Jays will likely be a play if Bichette is in the lineup.

 

[Matty]

Drives me nuts how teams are allowed to declare lineups so late.

 

[stevek]

Os is 1st by 2 now

Red Sox turning it on

 

[Matty]

Adding

FIRST FIVE
TOR +105 (3.8% edge)

 

[Matty]

Nats!

 

[Matty]

ChiFokkenSox!

 

[Matty]

Phils!

 

[Matty]

Tigers!

All 4 early FF plays cash

 

[Matty]

Twins! 5 FF plays in a row!

 

[roguejuror]

ah TOR FF broke the winning streak

 

[Matty]

O's! Padres!

Of course, Jays have to mess up the FF bingo. Slackers.

FF plays go 7-1 +6.72u
YTD 150-117-35 +17.7u

 

[Matty]

Friday July 5

FULL GAMES
NYM +120 (7% edge)
CLE -184 (9% edge)
DET +106 (7.5% edge)

FIRST FIVE
WSH +150 (3.4% edge)
CHW +104 (4.3% edge)
DET EV (11.9% edge)
PHI +118 (3.2% edge)

Adding

FULL GAMES
KCR -170 (8.8% edge)
MIN -150 (8.4% edge)
BAL -165 (8.3% edge)

FIRST FIVE
MIN -165 (11.7% edge)
BAL -156 (POD - 14.4% edge)
SDP EV (6.1% edge)

Jays will likely be a play if Bichette is in the lineup.

Adding

FIRST FIVE
TOR +105 (3.8% edge)

FULL GAMES
2-4 -3.98u
YTD 271-272 -10.74u

FIRST FIVE
7-1 +6.72u
YTD 150-117-35 +17.7u

POD 21-19-1 +0.42u

I'm dropping the Kelly experiment in this thread - the One Bet At A Time thread takes care of that in the form of a full-Kelly staking strategy with a zero risk of ruin. I was probably overshooting my edge in this thread. We'll never know. Whatever.

Going forward I'm also ignoring full games for the sake of determining the POD - only FF plays qualify. Is it too early to pull the plug on the full-game model? Probably. Do I have any faith in it making money long term? Right now, no.

Thx for coming to my TED talk.

Saturday July 6

FULL GAMES
BOS +165 (8.6% edge)

FIRST FIVE
NYY -190 (3.3% edge) (I'm actually betting this since I've given up on betting full games)

 

[roguejuror]

lowering the threshold on FF