Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

[roguejuror]

Love that Cards play

there still hasn't been a triple consensus with you tron and matty

 

[Tron]

there still hasn't been a triple consensus with you tron and matty

I have no opinion on this game

 

[Matty]

Adding

FULL GAMES
DET -136 (5.6% edge)
MIN -146 (7.5% edge)
TBR +116 (5.1% edge)

FIRST FIVE
CIN +146 (4.1% edge)
CLE -135 (7.5% edge)
MIN -140 (6.3% edge)
BAL -176 (10.7% edge - POD candidate)

 

[Matty]

Adding

FULL GAMES
MIL +150 (9.8% edge)

FIRST FIVE
TOR +130 (3.1% edge)
NYY -128 (3.8% edge)

POD is BAL FF -176.

 

[CASPERWAIT$]

there still hasn't been a triple consensus with you tron and matty

One day

 

[tullamore]

there still hasn't been a triple consensus with you tron and matty

When this if it does happen all gamelivers should be required to bet it. We are all in this together.

 

[Matty]

FULL GAMES
0-4 -5.21u
YTD 271-276 -15.95u

FIRST FIVE
2-3 -1.06u
YTD 152-120-35 +16.64u

POD 22-19-1 +1.42u

Sunday July 7

FULL GAMES
NYM -130 (3.4% edge)
DET -136 (5.6% edge)
MIN -146 (7.5% edge)
TBR +116 (5.1% edge)
MIL +150 (9.8% edge)

FIRST FIVE
STL -118 (5.2% edge)
NYM -130 (9.8% edge) 🟡
CIN +146 (4.1% edge)
CLE -135 (7.5% edge) 🟡
MIN -140 (6.3% edge) 🟡
BAL -176 (POD - 10.7% edge)
TOR +130 (3.1% edge)
NYY -128 (3.8% edge) 🟡

FULL GAMES
4-1 +3.5u
YTD 275-277 -12.45u

FIRST FIVE
2-2-4 -0.3u
YTD 154-122-39 +16.34u

POD 23-19-1 +2.42u

Better than a kick in the balls™

 

[roguejuror]

100 pages of the Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

 

[roguejuror]

Historically the views to posts ratio is 7:1 among us core group of visitors for a typical thread, this one is doing 11:1 or 60% more than a normal thread, which we can only conclude that there's frequent outsiders coming back to check the thread daily. Good job Machu you have organic followers.

 

[Matty]

And we made like several dozen dollars on paper!

(I'm actually up about $500 thanks to bonuses.)

For those of you wondering why I even keep tracking full games, below is yet another coin flip simulation. 10,000 coin flips at a 52% winrate, 1% of the bankroll per play, which simulates a 4% edge. This specific run shows several losing streaks lasting several hundred, even over 1400 bets. There's a drop of about 40 units between bets # 4500 and 5900, yet total profit over the 10,000 bets is 560 units.

When dealing with a small edge, the variance is crazy.

This doesn't mean my full-game model isn't trash. It just means it's going to take a long while to get conclusive results.

Would be nice to go on a sustained winning streak like the one at the start there. +52 units over 350 bets.

 

[Matty]

FULL GAMES
4-1 +3.5u
YTD 275-277 -12.45u

FIRST FIVE
2-2-4 +/-0u
YTD 154-122-39 +16.64u

POD 23-19-1 +2.42u

Better than a kick in the balls™

I messed up the FF results, we actually broke even yesterday. Fixed.

 

[Matty]

Monday July 8

FIRST FIVE
NYM +102 (13.5% edge - POD candidate)

 

[Matty]

Adding

FULL GAMES
STL EV (4.3% edge)

FIRST FIVE
STL +102 (4.8% edge)
CLE -138 (8.1% edge)

 

[Matty]

Adding

FULL GAMES
COL +150 (5.5% edge)
TEX -148 (4.2% edge)
ARI +170 (4.5% edge)

FIRST FIVE
MIN -160 (12.2% edge)
ARI +150 (4.9% edge)

 

[roguejuror]

pinging matty

 

[Matty]

Been running around all day, will be at the Gambol Station shortly

 

[Matty]

Monday July 8

FIRST FIVE
NYM +102 (POD - 13.5% edge)

Adding

FULL GAMES
STL EV (4.3% edge)

FIRST FIVE
STL +102 (4.8% edge)
CLE -138 (8.1% edge) 🟡

Adding

FULL GAMES
COL +150 (5.5% edge)
TEX -148 (4.2% edge)
ARI +170 (4.5% edge)

FIRST FIVE
MIN -160 (12.2% edge) 🟡
ARI +150 (4.9% edge)

FULL GAMES
2-2 +/-0u
YTD 277-279 -12.45u

FIRST FIVE
1-2-2 -1u
YTD 155-124-41 +15.64u

POD 23-20-1 +1.42u

 

[CASPERWAIT$]

I'd love to know what your record with strictly underdogs in full games is