Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

[Matty]

@stevek what the fuck

You told me O's were free money

 

[roguejuror]

pendejos Metropolitanos

 

[Matty]

We need an "angry" reaction

 

[Matty]

FULL GAMES
3-3 -1.83u
YTD 260-259 -6.71u

FIRST FIVE
2-1 +0.05u
YTD 135-107-34 +12.28u

POD 19-16-1 +2.58u

Kelly bankroll after day 54 - $162.02
New Kelly bet amount - $4.86

Sunday June 30

FULL GAMES
PIT +170 (9.6% edge)

FIRST FIVE
PIT +150 (10.1% edge)

Marlins FF +200 is a borderline play. I'd need a few cents better though.

Adding

FULL GAMES
TOR -110 (18.3% edge) (this is assuming Soto is out - still a play if he's in, likely POD if he's out)
NYM -125 (12.5% edge)
WSH +160 (3.8% edge)
KCR -130 (17.6% edge)

FIRST FIVE
COL +210 (8.9% edge)

Back after lunch for the 4/7PM games.

Adding

FULL GAMES
BAL -162 (7.4% edge)

FIRST FIVE
BAL -145 (8.9% edge)

FULL GAMES
2-4 -2.27u
YTD 262-263 -8.98u

FIRST FIVE
2-1 +2.15u
YTD 137-108-34 +14.43u

POD 20-16-1 +3.58u

Kelly bankroll after day 54 - $161.44
New Kelly bet amount - $4.84

 

[Matty]

Monday July 1

FULL GAMES
TOR +125 (6.1% edge)

FIRST FIVE
TOR +110 (3.1% edge)

FYI I'm only betting first five plays until further notice, full games are posted for data-gathering purposes only. No POD today.

 

[Tron]

Saturday July 1

FULL GAMES
TOR +125 (6.1% edge)

FIRST FIVE
TOR +110 (3.1% edge)

It's Monday, pal. COMMON!

 

[Matty]

It's Monday, pal. COMMON!

Every day is Saturday in my world.

Thanks Tron.

 

[stevek]

Rigged!!!!

 

[Matty]

I really tried to make Jays a no-play today. I tried a different approach using a different weighting for pitching and a different WAR base data, but Jays were even more of a play. They just keep underperforming. I'm completely baffled.

 

[CASPERWAIT$]

I really tried to make Jays a no-play today. I tried a different approach using a different weighting for pitching and a different WAR base data, but Jays were even more of a play. They just keep underperforming. I'm completely baffled.

It’s the Jays

 

[Matty]

FULL GAMES
2-4 -2.27u
YTD 262-263 -8.98u

FIRST FIVE
2-1 +2.15u
YTD 137-108-34 +14.43u

POD 20-16-1 +3.58u

Kelly bankroll after day 54 - $161.44
New Kelly bet amount - $4.84

Monday July 1

FULL GAMES
TOR +125 (6.1% edge)

FIRST FIVE
TOR +110 (3.1% edge)

FYI I'm only betting first five plays until further notice, full games are posted for data-gathering purposes only. No POD today.

FULL GAMES
YTD 262-264 -9.98u

FIRST FIVE
YTD 137-109-34 +13.43u

POD 20-16-1 +3.58u

Kelly bankroll after day 56 - $151.76
New Kelly bet amount - $4.55

 

[Matty]

Tuesday July 2

FULL GAMES
BOS -164 (8.3% edge)

FIRST FIVE
CLE -176 (7.7% edge)
NYM -145 (5.4% edge)

 

[Tron]

Tim Anderson and his -1.2 WAR in 3 months of baseball was DFA'd today by the Marlins.

He's going to be paid $5,000,000 for that -1.2 WAR.

 

[Matty]

I still have him as part of the team. Removing him actually reduces the edge on the Red Sox a bit. Not significantly though since his full-season projected WAR is -0.6.

 

[Tron]

Ya. He gone. He's been useless all year. They'll rightfully give the playing time to Xavier Edwards I assume.

Anderson managed to have zero XBH's and zero walks in the month of June.

 

[Matty]

Tuesday July 2

FULL GAMES
BOS -164 (8.3% edge)

FIRST FIVE
CLE -176 (7.7% edge)
NYM -145 (5.4% edge)

Adding

FIRST FIVE
KCR -124 (3.5% edge)
MIL -102 (11% edge - POD candidate)

 

[Matty]

Adding

FULL GAMES
NYM -140 (5.1% edge)
SDP -116 (7.3%edge)

 

[Matty]

Adding

FULL GAMES
ARI +166 (7.9% edge)

That's it for today.