Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

[Archie]

get em

 

[Matty]

FULL GAMES
YTD 240-234 +4.63u

FIRST FIVE
YTD 120-93-32 +11.85u

POD 15-12-1 +4.22u

Kelly bankroll after day 46 - $230.08
New Kelly bet amount - $6.90

Friday June 21

FULL GAMES
CHC -140 (7.1% edge)
ARI +125 (6.1% edge)
NYY -104 (5.5% edge)
BOS -108 (10.7% edge)
SEA -165 (POD - 13.1% edge)
SDP -150 (3.1% edge)
LAA +176 (7.2% edge)

FIRST FIVE
ARI EV (3.8% edge)
NYY -112 (6.2% edge)
SEA -160 (3.3% edge)
KCR +130 (4.2% edge)
COL -112 (3.2% edge)
LAA +150 (8.4% edge)
TBR -130 (7.6% edge)

bump

 

[stevek]

Why the bump there

The page only showing Archie saying 'get em' isn't good enough for you?

 

[Matty]

Just consolidating all the plays in one post, for easy grading at the end of the night

 

[Matty]

All these fokkin 1st inning HRs against me today

 

[Matty]

Fokkin Marlins fokked me real good here, again

 

[Matty]

FF plays go 4-3 +1.06u
YTD 124-96-32 +12.91u

Full games are going to be down big unless Angels and Padres come back.

 

[Matty]

Angels! Tonight could've been so much worse. Woo.

 

[Tron]

Fokkin Marlins fokked me real good here, again

You mean the Comeback Kids?

 

[roguejuror]

another 14 bets day today

 

[Matty]

FULL GAMES
3-4 -1.16u
YTD 243-237 +3.47u

FIRST FIVE
4-3 +1.06u
YTD 124-96-32 +12.91u

POD 15-13-1 +2.57u

Kelly bankroll after day 46 - $229.39
New Kelly bet amount - $6.88

Saturday June 22

FULL GAMES
TBR -104 (4.7% edge)

FIRST FIVE
NYM -106 (3.3% edge)
TBR -106 (6.4% edge)

 

[Matty]

Adding

FULL GAMES
SEA -165 (8.3% edge)
TOR +120 (5.7% edge)
BAL -146 (7.2% edge)

FIRST FIVE
SEA -158 (8.8% edge)

 

[Matty]

Waiting for Fernando Tatis Jr's status before tackling MIL-SDP, otherwise that is it for today.

 

[Matty]

Tatis is out. I have access to MIL -110 which is a borderline play. I would/will play it at -105 or better.

As of right now though SEA FF is the POD.

 

[Matty]

FULL GAMES
3-4 -1.16u
YTD 243-237 +3.47u

FIRST FIVE
4-3 +1.06u
YTD 124-96-32 +12.91u

POD 15-13-1 +2.57u

Kelly bankroll after day 46 - $229.39
New Kelly bet amount - $6.88

Saturday June 22

FULL GAMES
TBR -104 (4.7% edge)
SEA -165 (8.3% edge)
TOR +120 (5.7% edge)
BAL -146 (7.2% edge)

FIRST FIVE
NYM -106 (3.3% edge)
TBR -106 (6.4% edge)
SEA -158 (POD - 8.8% edge)

FULL GAMES
1-3 -2.5u
YTD 244-240 +0.97u

FIRST FIVE
1-2 -1.12u
YTD 125-98-32 +11.78u

POD 16-13-1 +3.57u

Kelly bankroll after day 47 - $204.48
New Kelly bet amount - $6.13

 

[roguejuror]

the day ended early today : (

 

[roguejuror]

can you nudge it a little so it can gives us something on the Angels Dodgers?

 

[Matty]

I really tried man. I tried a slightly revised version of the model for the 4 late games and it all lands almost right in the middle of the vig. I don't even have a lean on LAA-LAD. +/-371 for the full game and +/-337 for the 1st 5.