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Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

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Matty
FULL GAMES
YTD 239-233 +4.47u

FIRST FIVE
YTD 117-92-31 +9.61u

POD 15-11-1 +5.28u

Kelly bankroll after day 45 - $214.62
New Kelly bet amount - $6.44

Thursday June 20

FULL GAMES
ARI +116 (5.5% edge)
CHW +155 (9.6% edge)

FIRST FIVE
ARI +122 (10.1% edge)
MIN -124 (3% edge)
CLE +108 (7.4% edge)
SFG -106 (POD - 13.1% edge)
SDP -115 (7.7% edge)
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FULL GAMES
YTD 240-234 +4.63u

FIRST FIVE
YTD 120-93-32 +11.85u

POD 15-12-1 +4.22u

Kelly bankroll after day 46 - $230.08
New Kelly bet amount - $6.90

Friday June 21

FULL GAMES
CHC -140 (7.1% edge)
ARI +125 (6.1% edge)
NYY -104 (5.5% edge)
BOS -108 (10.7% edge)
SEA -165 (13.1% edge)

FIRST FIVE
ARI EV (3.8% edge)
NYY -112 (6.2% edge)
SEA -160 (3.3% edge)
 
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Adding

FULL GAMES
SDP -150 (3.1% edge)
LAA +176 (7.2% edge)

FIRST FIVE
KCR +130 (4.2% edge)
COL -112 (3.2% edge)
LAA +150 (8.4% edge)

Waiting for starters for TBR-PIT, TOR-CLE and BAL-HOU. Gonna be a big day. Mariners -165 is probably gonna be the POD.
 
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Matty
I have not. Even if I did, the sample size would still be way too small.

But yeah, let's make that today's project. I'm adding the column now. Thanks for the kick in the butt VD.
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You are welcome.

I agree the sample size would be too small, was just curious for funsies. But yeah, I think long-run that will be important data!

Also curious over the long-run if FF continues to outpace Full Game. It's especially interesting given that there's more chalk on FF.
 
Vegas Dave
You are welcome.

I agree the sample size would be too small, was just curious for funsies. But yeah, I think long-run that will be important data!

Also curious over the long-run if FF continues to outpace Full Game. It's especially interesting given that there's more chalk on FF.
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Agreed on FF vs full games. I might end up highlighting one of WAR's weaknesses, in that most relief pitchers are assigned a value close to zero. That seems a bit unrealistic. But who knows. I think things are likely to even out long term, i.e. we'll see a similar ROI between full games and FF. I could well be wrong.

But yeah FF lines are much softer. I sometimes see arbs in real time when checking lines at my two main books (FanDuel and TheScore Bet).
 
Matty
Agreed on FF vs full games. I might end up highlighting one of WAR's weaknesses, in that most relief pitchers are assigned a value close to zero. That seems a bit unrealistic. But who knows. I think things are likely to even out long term, i.e. we'll see a similar ROI between full games and FF. I could well be wrong.

But yeah FF lines are much softer. I sometimes see arbs in real time when checking lines at my two main books (FanDuel and TheScore Bet).
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Interesting theories! I was thinking about lines and bullpens too, but was thinking it might be that your edge is intrinsically higher (since to gain an edge despite more chalk you'd need a higher projected edge) or that your model might need tweaking re: bullpens. But your hypotheses that the lines are simply weaker and that WAR is the issue for bullpens make sense, too.
 
Vegas Dave
your model might need tweaking re: bullpens.
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That's quite possible. I'm just not sure how I would go about it since I'm dealing with a whole bunch of zeroes.

If FF do keep outpacing full games and/or full games fail to produce significant results, I would probably just switch to betting FF exclusively. Once I've quantified my actual edge, I won't need to bet that much volume at tiny percentages of my bankroll, I can simply bet FF a bit bigger.
 
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