Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

[roguejuror]

so few plays because of the adjustment?

 

[Matty]

Still going through the matchups, boss.

 

[Matty]

Adding

FULL GAMES
LAA +130 (3.1% edge)

That is it for today.

 

[Matty]

I like Houck a lot. He looks like he's not to be fucked with. Still shopping around for a cool rookie card of his.

I got this one, t'was the cheapest licensed autographed card on eBay... I like that you can clearly see his sleeve tattoo and his virgin throwing arm:

 

[Matty]

FULL GAMES
YTD 222-219 +1.17u

FIRST FIVE
YTD 107-85-27 +6.2u

POD 12-9 +3.78u

Kelly bankroll after day 39 - $184.63
New Kelly bet amount - $5.54

Friday June 14

FULL GAMES
TOR -142 (6.9% edge)
DET EV (11.9% edge)
COL +102 (9.2% edge)
SEA -140 (5.5% edge)
LAA +130 (3.1% edge)

FIRST FIVE
BAL -135 (9.6% edge)
MIN -164 (3.3% edge)
COL -106 (9.6% edge)
SEA -132 (POD - 16.5% edge )
LAD -130 (5.4% edge)

 

[Matty]

There's something weird going on with Andrew Heaney's 200IP WAR value (0.2), which is way lower than his projected full-season value (1.5). I'm not sure how that's possible. Looking into it.

But yeah that's the main reason SEA FF is the POD, otherwise it would've been the Tigers.

 

[roguejuror]

that's the highest edge you have gotten

lets go sailors from the pacific northwest

 

[Tron]

Agree on Angels and Rockies but I like Astros tonight not Tigers. Good luck

 

[Matty]

I think I'm usually fading Tarik Skubal. This feels unusual.

 

[Matty]

This is going very poorly.

 

[Matty]

Common Rockies

 

[Matty]

Ah you fucks

Edit - we got one run, FF will at least push

 

[Matty]

POD cashes, but very little else.

 

[roguejuror]

stagnant day that's all but not bad

I have a good feeling about today though

 

[roguejuror]

I bet matty is doing his MAGIC right now

 

[Matty]

Ima have breakfast first. Debating between bagel and eggs or the regular oatmeal.

 

[Tron]

Bagel and Eggs -134

 

[Matty]

FULL GAMES
YTD 222-219 +1.17u

FIRST FIVE
YTD 107-85-27 +6.2u

POD 12-9 +3.78u

Kelly bankroll after day 39 - $184.63
New Kelly bet amount - $5.54

Friday June 14

FULL GAMES
TOR -142 (6.9% edge)
DET EV (11.9% edge)
COL +102 (9.2% edge)
SEA -140 (5.5% edge)
LAA +130 (3.1% edge)

FIRST FIVE
BAL -135 (9.6% edge)
MIN -164 (3.3% edge)
COL -106 (9.6% edge) 🟡
SEA -132 (POD - 16.5% edge )
LAD -130 (5.4% edge) 🟡

FULL GAMES
2-3 -1.12u
YTD 224-222 +0.05u

FIRST FIVE
1-2-2 -1.99u
YTD 108-87-29 +4.21u

POD 13-9 +4.78u

Kelly bankroll after day 40 - $167.40
New Kelly bet amount - $5.02

I'm thinking about starting yet another experiment - a full-Kelly, one-play-at-a-time $100 bankroll where I only play 10%+ edge plays for 10% of the bankroll every time. That would involve betting closer to gametime. Some days could have 3 plays, but in most cases it would be just one or two (or zero).