Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

[roguejuror]

Speaking of which, I've tightened up my criteria a little bit - I used to play anything that was above a 1.5% edge. Going forward I'm raising the threshold to 3%. This will reduce the number of plays of course, but also limit my total exposure, i.e. reduce the % of the bankroll that can (and will) suddenly disappear when an 0-fer happens.

 

[Matty]

FULL GAMES
YTD 219-217 +0.47u

FIRST FIVE
YTD 106-83-25 +7.28u

POD 11-9 +2.78u

Kelly bankroll after day 38 - $186.76
New Kelly bet amount - $5.60

Thursday June 13

FULL GAMES
BAL -112 (6.2% edge)

FIRST FIVE
BAL -108 (7.6% edge)
STL -102 (7.8% edge)

Back later for the evening games. ✌️

 

[stevek]

May the O's bring you good fortune!

 

[Matty]

May the O's bring you good fortune!

I wanna talk to the manager.

 

[Matty]

Adding

FULL GAMES
BOS -105 (POD - 10.9% edge)
NYM -200 (10.5% edge)
ARI -188 (10% edge)
SEA -118 (8% edge)

FIRST FIVE
NYM -210 (4.9% edge)
ARI -180 (5.7% edge)
SEA +106 (10.8% edge)

Happy Tanner Houck day y'all

 

[stevek]

He TOTALLY smoked him there

I just watched that GIF for twenty minutes straight and will continue to

 

[MrMonkey]

@Matty Houck has been TOUGH and going against that depleted Phils lineup thinking might become a two game losing streak. What worries me is with Green Monster as good as Nola has pitched also, given up 11 HRs to only 2 by Houck.

 

[Matty]

I like Houck a lot. He looks like he's not to be fucked with. Still shopping around for a cool rookie card of his.

 

[Tron]

Marlins left 6 runners on base thru FF

 

[Tron]

Mets don't have a hit yet

That should jinx it

 

[Tron]

Mets get there first hit in the 6th. He's erased caught stealing.

 

[Matty]

Dum dum

 

[Matty]

Roddery Muñoz was supposed to suck (-0.7 WAR). Good riddance you sandbagger.

 

[Matty]

Common Mets

Don't do this to me

Tron is watching

 

[Matty]

We lucksacked the fuck out of this one boys!

 

[Tron]

Marlins had 8 hits (2 of them HR's) and somehow managed to score 2 runs.

I'd rather Martyballs win than the Marlins win a meaningless game against the Mets in early June.

 

[Matty]

FULL GAMES
YTD 219-217 +0.47u

FIRST FIVE
YTD 106-83-25 +7.28u

POD 11-9 +2.78u

Kelly bankroll after day 38 - $186.76
New Kelly bet amount - $5.60

Thursday June 13

FULL GAMES
BAL -112 (6.2% edge)
BOS -105 (POD - 10.9% edge)
NYM -200 (10.5% edge)
ARI -188 (10% edge)
SEA -118 (8% edge)

FIRST FIVE
BAL -108 (7.6% edge)
STL -102 (7.8% edge) 🟡
NYM -210 (4.9% edge) 🟡
ARI -180 (5.7% edge)
SEA +106 (10.8% edge)

FULL GAMES
3-2 +0.7u
YTD 222-219 +1.17u

FIRST FIVE
1-2-2 -1.08u
YTD 107-85-27 +6.2u

POD 12-9 +3.78u

Kelly bankroll after day 39 - $184.63
New Kelly bet amount - $5.54

 

[Matty]

Friday June 14

FULL GAMES
TOR -142 (6.9% edge)
DET EV (11.9% edge)
COL +102 (9.2% edge)
SEA -140 (5.5% edge)

FIRST FIVE
BAL -135 (9.6% edge)
MIN -164 (3.3% edge)
COL -106 (9.6% edge)
SEA -132 (POD - 16.5% edge )
LAD -130 (5.4% edge)