Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

[Matty]

FULL GAMES
YTD 216-214 +0.67u

FIRST FIVE
YTD 100-81-25 +4.26u

POD 11-8 +3.78u

Kelly bankroll after day 37 - $172.18
New Kelly bet amount - $5.17

Wednesday June 12

FULL GAMES
MIN -230 (6.2% edge)
TOR +108 (12.5% edge - POD candidate)
SFG -118 (4.8% edge)

FIRST FIVE
MIN -220 (6.4% edge)
TOR +120 (11% edge)

 

[Matty]

Adding

FULL GAMES
BAL -126 (5% edge)
CHW +205 (5.9% edge)

FIRST FIVE
SDP -195 (4.8% edge)
BOS -115 (7.3% edge)
LAD -168 (4.3% edge)

There might be a couple more plays later, but the FOKKIN Bue Jays should be the POD.

 

[stevek]

Bout damn time!!!!

Go O's!!!!

 

[MrMonkey]

Colossal day yesterday Matty and without question leading in GPOTY award. I know you have won it at least once before too.

 

[Matty]

Thx MrM. This gets frustrating at times because of the amount of work it requires, with so little to show for it so far. But I'm optimistic for the long-term future of it. There is still much to be learned and improved upon.

Speaking of which, I've tightened up my criteria a little bit - I used to play anything that was above a 1.5% edge. Going forward I'm raising the threshold to 3%. This will reduce the number of plays of course, but also limit my total exposure, i.e. reduce the % of the bankroll that can (and will) suddenly disappear when an 0-fer happens.

 

[Matty]

FULL GAMES
YTD 216-214 +0.67u

FIRST FIVE
YTD 100-81-25 +4.26u

POD 11-8 +3.78u

Kelly bankroll after day 37 - $172.18
New Kelly bet amount - $5.17

Wednesday June 12

FULL GAMES
MIN -230 (6.2% edge)
TOR +108 (12.5% edge - POD candidate)
SFG -118 (4.8% edge)

FIRST FIVE
MIN -220 (6.4% edge)
TOR +120 (11% edge)

Adding

FULL GAMES
BAL -126 (5% edge)
CHW +205 (5.9% edge)

FIRST FIVE
SDP -195 (4.8% edge)
BOS -115 (7.3% edge)
LAD -168 (4.3% edge)

There might be a couple more plays later, but the FOKKIN Bue Jays should be the POD.

POD lost, but the day has decent texture so far. Let's keep it going, baseballmen.

 

[Matty]

Adding

FULL GAMES
DET -120 (3.1% edge)

FIRST FIVE
BAL -124 (3.9% edge)
TBR -116 (4% edge)
LAD -150 (10.7% edge)

 

[Tron]

A

POD lost, but the day has decent texture so far. Let's keep it going, baseballmen.

of course the POD lost, pal

It was the Blue Jays

 

[Matty]

I think I'm 6-20 now when betting them. Slight improvement.

 

[Matty]

Duh - I bet LAD FF twice. I'll let it ride and count it as two individual plays.

 

[Matty]

Colton Cowserballls!

 

[Matty]

Common BoSox, don't fuck me here

Edit - BOSOX FF IMPROBABLY CASHES!

 

[Matty]

Tigers suddenly back from the dead! What's going on!

 

[Vegas Dave]

Matty rising like a PHOENIX from the ashes of doomsday!

 

[Matty]

FULL GAMES
YTD 216-214 +0.67u

FIRST FIVE
YTD 100-81-25 +4.26u

POD 11-8 +3.78u

Kelly bankroll after day 37 - $172.18
New Kelly bet amount - $5.17

Wednesday June 12

FULL GAMES
MIN -230 (6.2% edge)
TOR +108 (12.5% edge - POD candidate)
SFG -118 (4.8% edge)

FIRST FIVE
MIN -220 (6.4% edge)
TOR +120 (11% edge)

Adding

FULL GAMES
BAL -126 (5% edge)
CHW +205 (5.9% edge)

FIRST FIVE
SDP -195 (4.8% edge)
BOS -115 (7.3% edge)
LAD -168 (4.3% edge)

There might be a couple more plays later, but the FOKKIN Bue Jays should be the POD.

Adding

FULL GAMES
DET -120 (3.1% edge)

FIRST FIVE
BAL -124 (3.9% edge)
TBR -116 (4% edge)
LAD -150 (10.7% edge)

FULL GAMES
3-3 -0.2u
YTD 219-217 +0.47u

FIRST FIVE
6-2 +3.02u
YTD 106-83-25 +7.28u

POD 11-9 +2.78u

Kelly bankroll after day 38 - $186.76
New Kelly bet amount - $5.60

 

[Vegas Dave]

FULL GAMES
3-3 -0.2u
YTD 219-217 +0.47u

FIRST FIVE
6-2 +3.02u
YTD 106-83-25 +7.28u

POD 11-9 +2.78u

Kelly bankroll after day 38 - $186.76
New Kelly bet amount - $5.60

FUKK INNINGS 6 THRU 9 !!

 

[Matty]

WHO THE FUKK NEEDS EM !!

 

[roguejuror]

Colton Cowserballls!

@stevek