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Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

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FULL GAMES
YTD 144-141 +3.97u

FIRST FIVE
YTD 50-44-14 -7.15u

Kelly bankroll after day 10 - $171.67
New Kelly bet amount - $5.15

Thursday May 16

FULL GAMES
LAD -310 :wah:

FIRST FIVE
LAD -290 :wah::wah:

That's literally all I got for today. :wah::wah::wah:
 
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I have LAD as a -419 fave for the full game and -406 for the first five. Never seen anything like it.

Dodgers batting WAR is through the roof (38.9 after removing Jason Heyward) and Glasnow being the starter just sends it over the top.

I don't like this one bit but I already bet it and there's no going back.

come on
 
Boner_18
What is the theoretical edge there? Do you see serious money coming in on plays like these with huge edge thus validating your model?
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I think I misunderstood your question. Future line moves are largely irrelevant. If the model likes a bet in the moment, I play it.

Sure, ideally I would always time the market perfectly so I get the best possible price, but that would involve more energy and time than I'm willing to dedicate to this. If there's an edge when I analyze the matchup, I place the bet. That's it.
 
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