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Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

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Hmmm I've done some reading on Kelly but it's been a while. I really don't have a grasp of what my win probability is based on my "system".

In the past I just ball parked my increase in unit size as the BR grew.

I'm just going to just adjust every day and stay at 1% of my implied BR which is $2K
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Allow me to calculate your P-value based on your past results. BRB.
 
So with 52.19 units profit over 707 plays, your edge is 7.38% per bet. Now, your P-value is about 2.5%, which means that the odds your results are due to chance are 1 in 40. So we're not all that certain that you can maintain that 7.38% edge over the long term. If I were you I would round down to 5%.

In short, it means that at full Kelly, if you were to place only one coin-flip bet at a time, you would bet 5% of your bankroll on every play. With two coin-flip bets on separate events, you would bet 4.75% on each as per the calculator. That is, indeed, extremely aggressive.

I would do half-Kelly if I were you, but it all depends on your risk tolerance, how much money you're starting with and all that.
 
I just noticed I hit 50K posts with the above ^^ 🥳

matty 50k
 
Matty
So with 52.19 units profit over 707 plays, your edge is 7.38% per bet. Now, your P-value is about 2.5%, which means that the odds your results are due to chance are 1 in 40. So we're not all that certain that you can maintain that 7.38% edge over the long term. If I were you I would round down to 5%.

In short, it means that at full Kelly, if you were to place only one coin-flip bet at a time, you would bet 5% of your bankroll on every play. With two coin-flip bets on separate events, you would bet 4.75% on each as per the calculator. That is, indeed, extremely aggressive.

I would do half-Kelly if I were you, but it all depends on your risk tolerance, how much money you're starting with and all that.
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Outstanding explanation, Mattyballs! Thank you for that :bowdown:

Given all of that, I'm going to click it up to 2% per play (slightly below half Kelly). I have a good comfort level with that.
 
I'm still betting 10 bucks. I only have about 900 bucks split between 3 books right now, some balances get low after a full slate of plays.

This is still just an experiment. I'm placing these bets and posting on here to keep myself honest. When running simulations it's easy to cherry-pick data that fits your hypothesis. This is real world data.

matty keeping honest
 
Our P-value is down to 12.5% after yesterday's plays, meaning there's a 1 in 8 chance that our results are due to chance. This is trending down. We'll start getting excited once our P-value reaches 1%.

YTD 114-106 +9.59u $1097.78

Saturday May 4

NYY -155
 
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