Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

[Matty]

+12.87u in the first full month

Hard to believe, eh? Just two weeks ago I was almost 15 units in the hole. The swings are wild. When I was backtesting ideas I remember feeling like giving up early when I'd be down 10 units or more on paper. It was almost always a mistake.

 

[roguejuror]

Hard to believe, eh?

I always believed Spread Whisperer

 

[Matty]

YTD 107-103 +6.17u $1062.55

Wednesday May 1

ATL -170
BAL -144
WSH +160

That is it for now. Still waiting for Giants to announce a starter.

 

[Matty]

It's becoming apparent that bookies are using something very similar to my method to set opening lines. My model landed right in the middle of the vig for 12 of today's 15 games.

 

[Vegas Dave]

It's becoming apparent that bookies are using something very similar to my method to set opening lines. My model landed right in the middle of the vig for 12 of today's 15 games.

They probably wish they could take the first two weeks off, too!

 

[Matty]

Let's go Expos!

 

[Matty]

YTD 107-103 +6.17u $1062.55

Wednesday May 1

ATL -170
BAL -144
WSH +160

That is it for now. Still waiting for Giants to announce a starter.

2-1 +1.16u (+$11.95)

YTD 109-104 +7.33u $1074.50

Will increase the unit amount once we reach $1100 (and then every subsequent +$100)

 

[Matty]

YTD 109-104 +7.33u $1074.50

Thursday May 2

SFG -105

 

[Matty]

YTD 109-104 +7.33u $1074.50

Thursday May 2

SFG -105

YTD 110-104 +8.33u $1084.80

 

[Matty]

YTD 110-104 +8.33u $1084.80

Friday May 3

MIL +106
PHI -148
PIT -180
NYM +112
KCR -116

 

[Matty]

Adding

SDP -108

 

[Matty]

YTD 110-104 +8.33u $1084.80

Friday May 3

MIL +106
PHI -148
PIT -180
NYM +112
KCR -116
SDP -108

 

[Matty]

I learned how to calculate the P-value of a series of bets today. For those of you just tuning in, I am not exactly a STEM major, more of a liberal arts f*ggot who stopped caring about math around grade 9. That took some reading.

Anyhoo, with 16 units profit over 242 bets (combining both MLB threads), the P-value is around 15%, meaning that there is a 1 in 7 chance that my results are due to pure chance. If I manage to keep this pace over 2500 bets, the P-value will drop to 0.048% (meaning Bob's your uncle and I'll be able to retire within 10 years.)

COMMON ONE TIME

 

[Tron]

You got a great # on PHI

 

[Matty]

You got a great # on PHI

FanDuel They're the Sports Interaction of Online Sports Betting 2.0

 

[Tron]

What's the least complicated formula for increasing unit size?

 

[Matty]

What's the least complicated formula for increasing unit size?

Back in the day I would use SBR's Kelly calculator to size my bets. You can select the number of concurrent bets and then enter your estimated win % and the price paid. I would do full Kelly (Kelly Multiplier 1) which is extremely aggressive and stressful when you have 8-12 bets going at once, which I do a lot.

I still use the calculator but just to check that it recommends at least a 1% bet, and then I bet exactly that. Any more gets wild when you go on long losing runs, IMO.

The tricky thing is to estimate your win probability. I just plug in my model's output.

Kelly Criterion Calculator | Online Sports Betting Tools - SportsbookReview.com

Calculates Kelly stakes for bets on up to either 15 simultaneous betting events or 15 mutually exclusive outcomes of a single event.

www.sportsbookreview.com

 

[Tron]

Back in the day I would use SBR's Kelly calculator to size my bets. You can select the number of concurrent bets and then enter your estimated win % and the price paid. I would do full Kelly (Kelly Multiplier 1) which is extremely aggressive and stressful when you have 8-12 bets going at once, which I do a lot.

I still use the calculator but just to check that it recommends at least a 1% bet, and then I bet exactly that. Any more gets wild when you go on long losing runs, IMO.

The tricky thing is to estimate your win probability. I just plug in my model's output.

Kelly Criterion Calculator | Online Sports Betting Tools - SportsbookReview.com

Calculates Kelly stakes for bets on up to either 15 simultaneous betting events or 15 mutually exclusive outcomes of a single event.

www.sportsbookreview.com

Hmmm I've done some reading on Kelly but it's been a while. I really don't have a grasp of what my win probability is based on my "system".

In the past I just ball parked my increase in unit size as the BR grew.

I'm just going to just adjust every day and stay at 1% of my implied BR which is $2K