Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

[Tron]

All good Mattyballs on my end. Tailing plays is always enter at your own risk.

💪

 

[Matty]

FYI if you think the swings are wild, wait til we introduce our $250 full-Kelly bankroll tomorrow.

 

[stevek]

 

[Matty]

I think I hit an emotional breakthrough today. Ima stop obsessing over daily swings.

 

[CASPERWAIT$]

I think I hit an emotional breakthrough today. Ima stop obsessing over daily swings.

Think of it this way. Better to have extreme ups and downs and be ahead then having a steady drip of tiny losses over a long period.

 

[Matty]

Right. Ima have wild swings over a long period is all.

I keep running 4%-edge coin flip simulations to calm myself down.

I just wish I could place 2500 bets all at once and be done for the year.

 

[Matty]

I have a hockey bet that's not losing, yet.

 

[CASPERWAIT$]

One bad day is just that. One day. Hell you go 8-4 the next 3 days and today is an aberration

 

[Matty]

Don't you dare mess up my perfect 0-fer you Giant fucks

 

[Matty]

0-11


If you'd parlayed the exact opposite of today's selections, $10 would've netted you about $20k.

 

[Matty]

Still a little confused why you haven't clicked up unit size to $15 or $20.

 

[roguejuror]

it was just 11% of the roll, let's not bat an eye, we continue full steam

 

[Matty]

More like 14% and change. But yeah, I knew it was coming eventually. Not my first rodeo. At full Kelly this would've wipped out half my bankroll. And we're about to enter that dimension today.

 

[Tron]

Still a little confused why you haven't clicked up unit size to $15 or $20.

No longer confused

 

[roguejuror]

I knew it was coming eventually.

I blame Tron

 

[roguejuror]

No longer confused

 

[Matty]

Sunday May 5

FULL GAMES
YTD 116-108 +9.19u

NYM +105
HOU -124
STL -155
MIL -122
SFG -120

FIRST FIVE INNINGS
YTD 25-11-10 +11.87u

WSH -115
MIN -165
MIL -130
OAK -130
CIN -120
SFG -122

GRAND TOTALS
141-119-10 +20.89u
Kelly Bankroll (Day 0) $250

FULL GAMES
0-5 -6.21u
YTD 116-113 +2.98u

FIRST FIVE INNINGS
0-6 -7.82u
YTD 25-17-10 +4.05u

Alright, so a bit of housekeeping:

• I'm resetting the base unit amount to an exact $10 and getting rid of the dollar balance based on the initial $1000 bankroll, just to make my life easier.
• I'm introducing a new side bankroll of just $250 which will get bet at full Kelly. This balance will get tracked and the base unit amount will get recomputed every single day.

One of the lessons I've learned over the years is that your initial bankroll matters very little. If your hypothesis is correct and you stake correctly, it will blow up sooner than later. Through bonus hustling and steam-chasing, I grew roughly $1000 into $85k over about 18 months, back in 2008-2009. There's little doubt that I can do it again, but just like back then the swings will be wild. I was betting similar volume back then so I'm used to it.

Another lesson I've learned is that staking is just as important, if not more, than the actual bets you're placing. The idea is to not overshoot your edge, i.e. make the stakes small enough that losing runs don't wipe you out. This is where most people fail, by underestimating variance and grossly overestimating their skill. My whole staking strategy is designed to survive 0-fers (and it's a bit funny that one of them happened right after @Tron asked me why I wasn't betting bigger.)

Which leads us to another lesson - the idea of a +EV bet. I don't think of individual bets as being +EV - you can't really know that. You can have a +EV strategy that includes a bunch of -EV bets, which is likely what I have here. The real +EV bets more than make up for the -EV ones that get dragged along. There's no real way to know which ones are which.

Onwards and upwards (eventually). Thanks for coming to my TED talk.

 

[CASPERWAIT$]

0 fers will happen

So will perfect days

So will my cock getting wet from an actual female

These are trials and tribulations in life we must abide by to normalize our insanity