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How bout them Jays!

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The Joe Sheehan Newsletter
Vol. 7, No. 75
September 14, 2015

The Blue Jays continued their late-season surge by taking three of four from the Yankees in New York over the weekend, stretching their AL East lead to 3 1/2 games with three weeks to go. The Jays have made up 11 1/2 games on the Yankees in less than seven weeks -- in part by going 7-3 against the Yankees in that time -- and are now a favorite to win the division for the first time since it included the Milwaukee Brewers and the Detroit Tigers.

One Jay who didn't contribute to the weekend's fun was Mark Buehrle, whose start was skipped (allowing Marcus Stroman to return in his stead). Buehrle had a cortisone shot last week and will return to the mound Tuesday against the Braves, the closest thing we have right now to a minor-league rehab start. The skipped start could be costly. Buehrle has a streak of 14 straight seasons with at least 200 innings pitched. He needs 25 1/3 innings with no more than four starts left, so he'd have to average more than six innings per to reach 200. It's not at all clear that he can do that; even by his standards, Buehrle has been unusually hittable of late. Dating to July 6, Buehrle has struck out just 23 of the last 281 men he faced, an 8% strikeout rate that reads like a floating-point error. He's also lost a bit off an already limited fastball.

Slower, Slower, Slowest (mph)

Four-seam Change Cutter
Pre-break 84.8 79.9 80.6
Post-break 83.2 78.5 79.4

(Thanks, Brooks Baseball.)

We look for a drop in fastball velocity as an indicator for arm problems, and by the time we notice one, it's usually too late. Buehrle's cortisone shot may fix what we see above, but it's clear that he's been dealing with something. His pitch mix has changed as well, with more cutters and fewer four-seamers, and an abandonment of his curve. Buehrle threw 13 curves in 95 pitches against the A's on August 13; he's thrown 18 in 283 pitches since.

Buehrle has long been an exception to the rules about velocity, success, and longevity, but he's pushing it now. The only other starters averaging less than 85 mph with their fastball are knuckleballer R.A. Dickey and the similarly at-a-crossroads Jered Weaver. Finding starters who throw less than 84 and get to even 100 innings in a season is not easy. Setting aside Dickey and other knuckleballers, here are the only pitchers since 2009 to hit those marks:

Speed Limit 84 MPH

FBv ERA FIP bWAR
Barry Zito 2013 83.1 5.74 4.92 -2.6
Barry Zito 2012 83.9 4.15 4.49 0.2
Livan Hernandez 2011 83.9 4.47 3.95 -0.1
Jamie Moyer 2010 80.9 4.84 4.98 0.2
Jamie Moyer 2009 81.3 4.94 5.08 0.2

(Thanks, Fangraphs.)

That'snot a good list.

Keep going back, and you hit a number of the usual suspects: a few more Moyer and Hernandez seasons; end-stage Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine; Mike Maroth. Moyer gets held up as a model, but he was done as a good pitcher by 2008, just before Peak Strikeout began. At least in this decade, and probably going forward, 84 mph may be the Armstrong Limit of baseball, the bare minimum velocity you need to keep your job. Buehrle is now past that limit, and unless he finds his way back, his career is in jeopardy.

When Buehrle takes the mound Tuesday in Atlanta, he'll be trying to extend an unusual streak. He's made 11 straight starts without striking out more than three batters in any of them. When I noticed this, I was absolutely sure it was going to be some kind of high mark for the decade. Not only is it not a record for the 2010s, it's also not the longest streak by a Jays pitcher in that time.

Hit Me!

Year <3K Strk ERA
Nick Martinez 2014 13 5.83
Henderson Alvarez 2012 13 4.03
John Lannan 2010 13 5.37
Mark Buehrle 2015 11 3.84
Nick Blackburn 2011-12 11 7.71
Jason Marquis 2011-12 11 8.24
Brad Bergesen 2010 11 7.08

(Thanks, Play Index.)

Notice that most of these players are no longer major-league pitchers. Strikeouts matter. Also notice that Buehrle has been the most effective of these pitchers, basically a league-average starter, during their streaks; most of them got beat like a drum. Buehrle is an exception, one we've enjoyed for a long time.

Obviously, I had to put some clamps on this search, lest Buehrle be 7000th on a list that included hundreds of long-dead pitchers who played a game we would barely recognize today. If you open the floodgates and go back as far as 1914 -- as far as the Play Index goes -- you get some fun numbers.

Hit Me! (All-Time Version)

Year <3K Strk ERA
Willis Hudlin 1937-40 69 4.76
Sherry Smith 1923-25 66 3.87
Benny Frey 1932-36 65 4.59
Bill Hubbell 1921-25 63 5.41
Joe Genewich 1926-28 61 3.85

I'm certain that in my entire career, I have never created a chart with a more obscure collection of names.

Hit Me! (Expansion Remix)

Year <3K Strk ERA
Jeff Ballard 1988-89 44 3.98
Claude Osteen 1975 32 4.20
Randy Martz 1981-83 31 4.19
Mike Flanagan 1989-91 30 4.81
Dave Roberts 1977-78 30 5.07

The "Why Not?" Orioles, for whom Ballard pitched, were one of the great surprises of the 1980s, falling just short of the Blue Jays in September that year. They were also a team that won as much with defense as with anything else -- comparable, a bit, to the modern Royals. It's funny to think that we're just a quarter-century removed from a year in which a team could win 87 games with an 11% strikeout rate and just one pitcher with even 100 strikeouts. Baseball was a radically different game even within my lifespan.

Mark Buehrle would have liked that game.
 
I have a bad feeling the Jays are going to start losing now in Tulo's absence. Like that's going to become a thing, their record with him versus without, and that's going to take on a life of its own.

With him they are something like 31-9, and without they are below .500.

I know he isn't solely responsible for all that winning - not even close - but I am fearing irrational, stupid stuff.

Haunted by ghosts of '87.
 
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