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Coronavirus

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New cases per day still hovering in the ~25k/day range.

New deaths per day still hovering in the ~2k/day range.

All of this with extreme social distancing measures, which may be lightened soon as the nation gets restless.

In what fantasy world do deaths drop below 1000 per day in the next 10 days and below 100 per day by May 14? Is anyone still buying this useless model?

covid19.healthdata.org

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
covid19.healthdata.org covid19.healthdata.org
 
well they should be updating the model regularly. So the further we go the more accurate it should be :dunno:
Doesn't seem that there would be a sudden drop in deaths, but the model makers should know that better than me. Perhaps since the testing is more widespread, less of the new cases will be fatal.

I think the way they attribute deaths is highly suspect, and we will only get a good idea once we can compare death numbers to previous years. But that should not affect the model. I assume they base the model on what's currently reported.
However, if "distancing" is having an effect, the numbers should rise once that is removed. And if that's the case, it seems unlikely to me, that the numbers, as they are being reported now, could stay close to 60,000
 
I had a Zoom meet up with 16 of my high school friends last night. It took a quarantine to make that happen.

One of them won a Grammy. One basically owns Miami and is a billionaire. One is a politician.
Im a bartender, but I have my hair.

Yep...I’m a real winner
 
Vegas Dave
New cases per day still hovering in the ~25k/day range.

New deaths per day still hovering in the ~2k/day range.

All of this with extreme social distancing measures, which may be lightened soon as the nation gets restless.

In what fantasy world do deaths drop below 1000 per day in the next 10 days and below 100 per day by May 14? Is anyone still buying this useless model?

covid19.healthdata.org

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
covid19.healthdata.org covid19.healthdata.org
Click to expand...
Vegas Dave
New cases per day still hovering in the ~25k/day range.

New deaths per day still hovering in the ~2k/day range.

All of this with extreme social distancing measures, which may be lightened soon as the nation gets restless.

In what fantasy world do deaths drop below 1000 per day in the next 10 days and below 100 per day by May 14? Is anyone still buying this useless model?

covid19.healthdata.org

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
covid19.healthdata.org covid19.healthdata.org
Click to expand...

I think you are overlooking confidence intervals.
The IHME model has a confidence interval of 35,000 to 165,000 total US deaths by May 24 for example.
 
Archie
Deaths

Sweden 1765
Norway 182
Finland 141


Sweden death's per capita now 7th worst among large nations and 37% higher than the US's

They have not peaked yet. Reporting 185 new deaths today.
Click to expand...

Does 10 million population make a large nation? Anyway, Sweden is claiming to have a handle on things. They are doing better than UK, Spain and Italy without any lockdown.

Pomeroy pointed to some Swedish characteristics that may be helping the country deal with the current crisis. More than half of Swedish households are single-person, making social distancing easier to carry out. More people work from home than anywhere else in Europe, and everyone has access to fast Internet, which helps large chunks of the workforce stay productive away from the office.
Click to expand...

www.bloomberg.com

Sweden Says Controversial Virus Strategy Proving Effective

www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com
 
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