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The Polaroid Random Thoughts Baseball Thread

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MonkeyF0cker
Yeah. Similar discussion with Montero. I misquoted Bay's PA's in that last post. He only had 10 with the Padres.

Overall, I agree with you on scouting. Montero and Bay were putting up similar numbers in the minors. Pretty much a no-brainer for the Pirates.

Yeah. There are certainly some long-standing misconceptions about teams. But the Marlins trades aren't very complex. I don't think they got the best of either one of them in a seller's market - beside the fact that they paid a bunch of money for those free agents and then throw in the towel in July. Just seems very suspect and lends credence to the rumor that Loria was trying to unload the team.
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yeah Loria might be a nutjob!!!! I don't know much about him

I think Jacob Turner can help this year, and alot over the next 5... flynn could be great from 2014-2020

Sanchez was only a marlin for what? 12-15 more starts right?

I put that trade in the category of the Pirates trading Giles.... they knew they were losing him, that got a great return on him, but 99% of the world bad mouthed the Pirates for trading him cause they never heard of Bay and Oliver Perez... turns out those guys were better for a few years.

same might happen with Sanchez... that was 33% of my reason for bringing the Pirates past moves into the discussion

the Han-Ram trade I know less about...

I do see FW's point that the Marlins lured fans in (anyone got the #'s?) based partly on the FA spendings and partly on the stadium

now they appear at first blush to be giving in
 
Yeah. But they shipped Infante with him. That makes the deal a "meh." If they only had to ship Sanchez, it's a no-brainer.

If they're looking shorter term, the Marlins need bats a lot more than pitching. And they got rid of bats and got more pitching...

None of it makes much sense.
 
FairWarning
Ya, for sure. The baseball draft is funny because its common for top 3-5 talent to drop because of signability. Big reason the White Sox draft college players - they cant use college as leverage like a 18-YO can.
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but MLB threw a major monkey wrench into the wackiness of it, and Boras likes to throw 5 gorilla wrenches in it...

point being that even if you spend on a number 1 pick

there is no way of knowing that a 62nd round pick like Mike Piazza might not be the best pick

MLB baseball draft is the most inexact gamble draft in all of sports

and even if you do draft a star like the Pirates did in Andrew McCutchen in 2005 it might take 5 years for him to develop

getting help via the draft for next year has happened less than 10 times in MLB history FW, that's not even fair
 
MonkeyF0cker
Yeah. But they shipped Infante with him. That makes the deal a "meh." If they only had to ship Sanchez, it's a no-brainer.

If they're looking shorter term, the Marlins need bats a lot more than pitching. And they got rid of bats and got more pitching...

None of it makes much sense.
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if the tigers Waived infante today

maybe 2-3 teams would think about picking him up

guy had a great spring, but look at his numbers since

do you really want him? what is his WAR? doubt its over two. meaning he will win maybe 1 more game for a team over replacement level...

now the Tigers were like WAY below replacement level, thus they actually WANTED him

but don't use old infante as anything to bolster the Marlins making a bad move
 
Infante is about average for 2B.

It's not necessarily about how good Infante is compared to the rest of the league. It's about the fact that they had nothing behind him. They shipped out half of their infield and have nobody that can come up. I'd much rather have Bonifacio at 3B with Infante at 2B than what they currently have with Solano/Bonifacio.
 
MonkeyF0cker
Infante is about average for 2B.

It's not necessarily about how good Infante is compared to the rest of the league. It's about the fact that they had nothing behind him. They shipped out half of their infield and have nobody that can come up. I'd much rather have Bonifacio at 3B with Infante at 2B than what they currently have with Solano/Bonifacio.
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I see where you are coming from, but if i'm a marlins fan I'm OK with admitting that its a shitty team and a shitty year and let's cut bait with some dead wood, and save some money for 2013 on. Marlins can lose 88 games with Infante and pay him or lose 90 games and not pay him...

you mentioned the Cards and their coming from behind to win a pennant earlier

but you can't have your shitty team, and try to make daft eat the "its too early to give up" argument too...

Infante is not crucial to anything
 
Archie
I see where you are coming from, but if i'm a marlins fan I'm OK with admitting that its a shitty team and a shitty year and let's cut bait with some dead wood, and save some money for 2013 on. Marlins can lose 88 games with Infante and pay him or lose 90 games and not pay him...

you mentioned the Cards and their coming from behind to win a pennant earlier

but you can't have your shitty team, and try to make daft eat the "its too early to give up" argument too...

Infante is not crucial to anything
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They could be buyers rather than sellers...

I just don't get how you spend that much money in the offseason and then start looking to unload after 3.5 months. I think it's pretty much unprecedented in MLB.

But I never agreed with their free agency (or manager) signings much to begin with...
 
FairWarning
I think we can agree that the marlins signed players (joe sheehan blog i posted) for the intent of selling tix and hope to win.
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Hmmmmmmmm

Selling tickets and hoping to win. Truly evil intentions. I'm seeing it more clearly now.

Surely there are no other ownerships in baseball that sign players and then hope to win.

Amazing blog.
 
tullamore
Andrew Bailey and Ryan Sweeney to Boston for Josh reddick and prospects. Good trade for Boston, not sure what the A's are going other than trading there whole team.
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rjt721
Reddick isn't a loss. He's a 4th outfielder, at best.

Bailey's arm could fall off any day now, but well worth the risk. If healthy, he'll be comparable to Papelbon for the next 2-3 years for a fraction of the price.

Bard surely in the rotation now. Still need to add at least one more starter. Kuroda would be nice.
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Archie
A's have always sold high on dime a dozen relievers, the market over values them and they don't want to pay them into their arb years,besides that, there are alot of arm injury issues in Bailey's past...

Sweeney is no loss

Reddick could be a good starting CF-er with quite a bit of power upside

I imagine Miles Head a top 20 Sally League Player and Alacantera (whom I know nothing about) were who the A's were really after
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rjt721
Alcantera has the most upside of the three guys they got. Reddick is garbage.

Bailey's eligible for arbitration for the first time and Oakland's not going to pay big money to a reliever. That franchise has no shot at competing until they get a new ballpark and start getting more than 9 people to go to their games.
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Enigma
oakland didn't get enough in that trade
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Archie
time will tell, baseball trade analysis's can look very different on day 1 of the trade and year 3,4,5,6,7,8, ect of the trade

I'd say both teams made moves that suited their needs
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BASEBALL TRADE knee jerk reaction 101

coulda left Reddick and his 21 HR's out of the trade and A's still win with Miles Head alone!

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=1B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=571758

Raul, is getting eaten in the low minors...

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=t420&t=p_pbp&pid=593417
 
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FairWarning
They need more studs so they better pony-up.
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I missed this yesterday...

off the TOP of MY HEAD let me give you some names and facts..

Gerritt Cole
Josh Bell
Jameson Tallion
Robbie Grossman
Stetson Allie
Colton Cain
Clay Holmes
Pedro Alvarez
Victor Black

go look up those signing bonuses and tell me the Pirates didn't pay for "Studs"

just because they haven't wanted to over pay for MLB vets that are declining and overpaid already does not make them cheap

some of those above names, and other teams that were spending way over recommended slot values are THE reason they made the stupid draft rules this year.

before the 2012 draft, NO team in MLB spent MORE on the draft than the Pirates....

NOT EVEN THE NATS!!!!!
 
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FairWarning
We get the point that they spent money in the draft Archie. How about the drafts from the 20 years 1989-2009?
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you again prove my Thesis...

casual fans don't have the insight to make knee jerk assessments of the top of their head and out their ass...

it has NOTHING to do with anything before 2007....

why are you living in the past?

no team has spent more in the draft since in the years 2007,08,09,10,11 than the Pirates.

I think that is more important than 1989

Pirates finally got some good ownership and front office guys that are doing it the right way....

but most people like you don't see the big picture, and still think that trading Kendall or Giles or Bay was a bad thing... even with the benefit of hindsight

it baffles me
 
speaking of the 2012 draft, for people that have some more knowledge of it.....

the Pirates spent like 3-4 million on it this year due to the restictions and Appel dumbly not taking the 3+ million ceiling offer they were allowed per MLB....

in 2011 they set the all-time record in draft spending with 17 million! Hopefully they didn't just use that money for Wandy's contract. Its my hope that this off-season they will get an above average free agent or even trade for someone like Pence this year.

Only four teams this year spent over $10 M in the draft, after ten teams did the same last year.

so then again thanks to the stupid rules imposed on the draft by MLB, that hamstrings small market teams, alot of teams have a little extra in the bank
 
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