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Need some Help... 1000 dollar future bet at stake.

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Archie

Archie

SP Nation and I Ruin things
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so about 4-6 weeks ago I made a forum bet at peepsplace with a guy named Raiders.

The bet was that I got Baltimore over 69.5 at 10:1 (at the time those were sucker odds but I took them anyways)
I put 100 dollars on it.

Baltimore made it interesting for awhile and I we were actually ahead of pace...

then the O's took a turn for the worse. and the raiders guy offered me 1:1 odds on over 66 I took that for 125 bucks...

so i'm already getting a free shot at the 1000.

Baltimore now has to win the final two games to win the bet. (vs red sox) its all possible that they will only play 161 games... in which case I still lose automatically.

Raiders offered me a 100 dollar buy out for the 1000 dollar bet. but I declined.

So what are the appropriate hedge amounts I should play today on the r. sox? and then tomorrow.

I kinda wanna let it ride

remember i'm small time, I don't even bet but a few games a week anymore, and thats for like 5-50 bucks 90% of the time.

so 1000 is a nice extra chunk of change that we can take a little long weekend with.

hell the 125 I got offered yesterday is nice to go out twice on the weekend...

Boner18, I need your help here
 
I think if you look at the odds

Balt has about a 12% chance to do it

it would be HUGH choke by boston


Baltimore beat them 3 out 4 last week, and now won the first game in baltimore of this series.

Lester is what scares me and he would be game 162

I might roll the dice and just bet to win 100 on the bosox tonight, with Britton going for the O's
 
Archie
I think if you look at the odds

Balt has about a 12% chance to do it

it would be HUGH choke by boston


Baltimore beat them 3 out 4 last week, and now won the first game in baltimore of this series.

Lester is what scares me and he would be game 162

I might roll the dice and just bet to win 100 on the bosox tonight, with Britton going for the O's
Click to expand...

Britton is not awful, but I still like the Sox to take the next 2. Call it the ESPN theory. All morning long, the Sox are getting ripped to shreds on the "what happens now is opposite of what we say" station. They will win the next 2 for that reason alone.
 
While I agree in many respects with an earlier post by Bread about how players don't care about rivalries....


The O's would LOVE to bury the Sox. Belee dat.

Boston is a satellite falling from the sky at 4000 miles an hour.

I like how your letting your original wager with Raiders ride.


As far as the hedge, I'm not your guy for that.
 
The better question is what is the likelyhood of this dude stiffing you? If you think its zero/don't care I would bet the sox to win what you want out for the bet ($100-200) and let the rrest ride tomorrow if the o's win tonigt.

Just me.
 
yeah I know he is well known in forumville, but i've never been on a board with him before...

most old timers like him and me at Peeps are former stiffs of some sort.

good thoughts boner-asshole
 
Yep if you think he is gonna stiff you a full hedge is no good since one side of it (the bet) is no good. If both your "hedge bets" lose you need the 1k to cover them + profit. If yyyou don't get it you just end up losing two red sox bets.

Oh and I hope you die in a fire before any of this matters.
 
Using the current Pinnacle no vig lines(+/- 153.846), the probability of the Sox winning today is 60.6%. If I remember correctly, that price is pretty much the same as yesterday and if you're looking for a quick calculation then just assume the odds are the same tomorrow. That makes the probability of the O's winning both games as 15.5% aka a moneyline of +544.

In simple terms, your coin flip bet at a no vig line of -100/-100 (I'm assuming you took the level of wins which reflected the market at the time) now only has a 15.52% chance of cashing. If the buyout is still available at the price you quoted, I wouldn't hesitate to take it (especially bearing in mind that you might not actually get paid if you win).
 
good advice counselor

I mean I have nothing to lose. at the very worst he owes me 25 bucks


again thanks for your comments

and I hope you get some anal warts and polyps in all your orfices that start spontaneously exploding and dripping bloody residue...

give my best to the missus
 
OK so I didn't read the post correctly - you're guaranteed to be up at least $25 whatever the outcome. So you're now essentially holding a ticket at +1000 odds where the (probably not 100% accurate) true market value is +544. In that case I'd let the bet ride. You can certainly hedge it out but as Boner pointed out, that is risky if you aren't guaranteed to get a payout if Baltimore get 70 wins.
 
perfect

exactly what I was looking for.

thanks Polo

I think tomorrow's odds are gonna be like -200 or -220 though.... unless boston wins tonight and they don't pitch lester


thread can be closed per Mr. D now

appreciate it everyone

fok off boner
 
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