Hooligans Sportsbook

Need some Help... 1000 dollar future bet at stake.

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appreciate all the feedback people, here is what I've decided. I will eschew the buyout. I want to "risk" it sitting on my biscuit. I mean in my stupid mind, I'm saying no matter what I don't LOSE real money out of my wallet, out of paypal, out of my bank, out of my 5d account ect.... its not RISK

In terms of a BUYOUT..... it would require the Os to win both games, as many here have stated..... I'll take it with these #'s though..the no-vig line on the game today is -150 and let's say it's -163 tomorrow (-170,+160). Then, my odds of the Os winning both games is a parlay of +150 and +163, which is +557 and has an implied winning rate of 15.2%, we've all come up with similar numbers.... In this case my "equity" in the bet is about $67 ((15.2% of $1100) - $100). The reason it's $1100 is because I'll net the $100 I would've paid him plus the $1000 he's going to pay me(I think I completely trust him now). This depends on the 2nd game being around -170/+160 but I think that's about what it'll be. The other factor to buyouts, is the premium each person puts on not being in the bet which can change the $$ amount. for me its zero

Now, to the hedging question. If I want a true hedge, I'd want to set up a scenario where I'm agnostic to the outcome of the games. My goal is to get my $67 out of the next 2 games, no matter what.

1) I'm going to be betting on Boston no matter what. If they win they first game, I obviously don't bet on them on the 2nd game.

2) Game 1: Risk $250 to win $167 on Boston (assuming no-vig odds of -150 so far I got -155). If they win, great.

3) If they lose (and the Os win), I Risk $679 to win $417 (assuming no-vig odds of -163). This is a martingale of bet #1 ($250 + $167).

Scenarios:
1) Red Sox win game 1, I lose my Raiders/PP bet (-$100) but win $167 on your bet and you profit $67.

2) Red Sox lose game 1, win game 2. I lose my Raiders bet (-$100) but win $167 on bet #2 and profit $67.

3) Red Sox lose both games. I lose $929 on both Red Sox bets but win $1000 from him to profit $71.

but seriously. I am a GAMBOLER!!!!!

LET IT RIDE.

I have about 300 risked on the red sox tonight at a few places combined.

if it goes to game 162, I may just leave it ride and enjoy the rush or try to recoup my 300 I lost tonight and net a few hundred.

root it in for me bitches
 
Archie, seeing your recent post your mistake was you changed your original bet! Your not a full time GAMBOLER! Good luck again!

Honestly, I think I confused myself but good luck again! I'm still rooting for the Rays to make the playoffs and the WS!
 
In other words, you're bypassing $100 to potentially win $71. :wacko:

That's not gambling. That's just stupid. But whatever floats your boat...

You're making a pretty big assumption that Lester isn't going to be near -200 tomorrow as well.
 
Title of the thread is gonna be changed to PUPPET MATTRESS RETURNS

seriously I made all the bet shit up

I never post at peeps place

I don't even have 100 to bet in the first place..... Teela called me today and thought this shit up.

I said I bet it doesn't get 3 replies.... she said it would get 40 minus my responses....

I guess she wins

and she gets my FULL collection of KOK shots....

Pray for Teela's hard drive
 
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