Well okay so let's talk about Best Actress. Here's the deal:
115 Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) -185
116 Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) +400
117 Emmannuelle Riva (Amour) +275
118 Naomi Watts (The Impossible) +3300
119 Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild) +6600
I include the odds but again, I am talking about my vote, not my expectation.
Some real apples and oranges comparisons here.
First of all, the 6 year-old Wallis was adorable as all get-out, but the nomination is her reward. Jennifer Lawrence continues to ride this weird mass-hysteria hype machine. No chops. Out of the question.
Emmanuelle Riva was very good. Maybe it's her.
I like Jessica Chastain but something about that performance was just uninspiring to me. Can't quite put my finger on it - maybe because the movie itself was so much like homework, I wasn't totally focused. I don't know.
Naomi Watts was very good at something completely different. Terror, hysteria, exhaustion, a physical struggle against severe injuries. I think she would have my vote except she wasn't always completely convincing. I found there were a few moments of, "Oh, I'm watching an actor acting."
This would be a tough vote for me to cast. I guess they ultimately stack up this way for me.
Emmanuelle Riva
Jessica Chastain / Naomi Watts
Jennifer Lawrence / the little kid