Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

Tron
I feel like WAR is not as accurate for pitchers as it is for position players
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ESPECIALLY for bullpens.

Given that different arms are used each day, small sample sizes of innings, potential performace differences on rest vs. having pitched the day before, etc.

Obviously the model's FF success over Full Games could just be a blip, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was bullpen related.
 
Yeah, I agree with VD, relief pitching seems to be a significant WAR blind spot.

There are several WAR frameworks by the way, but they all end up being more or less the same for my purposes. Fangraph's pitching WAR is based on FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching).
 
Matty
Wednesday June 26

FULL GAMES
SEA -108 (6.7% edge) :greencheck:

FIRST FIVE
CIN -135 (4.1% edge) :redx:
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Matty
Adding

FULL GAMES
OAK +116 (3.7% edge) :redx:
SDP -188 (POD - 9.2% edge) :greencheck:

FIRST FIVE
MIL +114 (3% edge) 🟡
OAK +116 (7.8% edge) :greencheck:
TOR +125
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Matty
Adding

FIRST FIVE
ARI EV (3.4% edge) :redx:
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Matty
Adding

FULL GAMES
CLE +195 (3.33% edge) :redx:
CHW +148 (4.7% edge) :redx:
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FULL GAMES
2-3 -1u
YTD 251-253 -5.43u

FIRST FIVE
1-2-1 -1.19u
YTD 130-104-33 +10.65u

POD 17-15-1 +1.58u

Kelly bankroll after day 51 - $161.75
New Kelly bet amount - $4.85
 
Thursday June 27

FULL GAMES
CHC -112 (5.4% edge)
PHI -300 (3.8% edge) :wah:
BAL -198 (4.8% edge)

FIRST FIVE
BAL -190 (5.8% edge)
 
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Adding

FULL GAMES
DET -145 (3.5% edge)

That is it for today. POD is BAL FF -190
 
I thought I'd need more time to edumacate myself, but Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference have tons of detailed articles about the thinking and the math that went into developing WAR. I'm satisfied with what I read.

I don't think I can improve on the model this season, and I'd rather not fuck with it anyway. I keep reminding myself that I'm mostly gathering data at this stage, even though I am actually betting this garbage.
 
I might start blindly playing the Marlins when they face the opposing teams ace of the staff. They have the third worst Run Differential in MLB but I feel like they play .500 ball against aces (as HUGH dogs).
 
I think I've lost every single bet on huge -300 faves this season.
 
Matty
Thursday June 27

FULL GAMES
CHC -112 (5.4% edge) :greencheck:
PHI -300 (3.8% edge) :redx: :facepalm
BAL -198 (4.8% edge) :greencheck:

FIRST FIVE
BAL -190 (5.8% edge) :greencheck:
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Matty
Adding

FULL GAMES
DET -145 (3.5% edge) :redx:

That is it for today. POD is BAL FF -190
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You'd think going 3-2 would be a decent day. :facepalm

FULL GAMES
2-2 -2.45u
YTD 253-255 -7.88u

FIRST FIVE
1-0 +1u
YTD 131-104-33 +11.65u

POD 18-15-1 +2.58u

Kelly bankroll after day 52 - $154.72
New Kelly bet amount - $4.64
 
Friday June 28

FULL GAMES
PHI -220 (11.6% edge)
BAL -120 (POD - 15% edge)
TOR -104 (4.7% edge)

FIRST FIVE
TBR -164 (6.7% edge)
 
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Adding

FULL GAMES
KCR -108 (8.4% edge)

FIRST FIVE
SDP +158 (4.8% edge)
NYM -112 (4.9% edge)
CIN +105 (6.1% edge)
 
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