Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

[Matty]

Thursday May 30

FULL GAMES
ARI -124 (6.7% edge - POD)
DET +105 (3.8% edge)
WSH +165 (6% edge)

FIRST FIVE
HOU +115 (5.1% edge)
WSH +155 (3.7% edge)

 

[roguejuror]

all away teams

 

[Matty]

all away teams

Interesting. I haven't been keeping track of that, I probably should.

 

[Tron]

Thursday May 30

FIRST FIVE
HOU +115 (5.1% edge)

Wow Astros are +135 FF now

 

[Matty]

Thanks Tron

 

[Tron]

Thanks Tron

A Bregman BING BONG

 

[Matty]

 

[Tron]

Thursday May 30



FIRST FIVE
HOU +115 (5.1% edge)

Confirmed BING BONG

 

[Matty]

Looking back at this matchup, it's a combination of Houston's superior batting and shittier bullpen that made HOU FF a play, despite the Mariners' Logan Gilbert being a much better starter.

 

[Matty]

FF bets are 🔥 lately. 2-0 +2.5u today, up to +7.71u for the season.

Feelsgoodman.

 

[Matty]

Thursday May 30

FULL GAMES
ARI -124 (6.7% edge - POD)
DET +105 (3.8% edge)
WSH +165 (6% edge)

FIRST FIVE
HOU +115 (5.1% edge)
WSH +155 (3.7% edge)

FULL GAMES
2-1 +1.46u
YTD 184-180 +0.94u

FIRST FIVE
2-0 +2.7u
YTD 79-57-21 +7.91u

POD 4-3 +1.17u

Kelly bankroll after day 25 - $212.51
New Kelly bet amount - $6.38

 

[Matty]

So we just hit 500 bets - I'm ignoring the pushes. My hypothesis (and goal) is that I have a 4% edge on average, which means I should be at +20 units right now. +8.85u is not great but it's also not far off at all.

Anyway, 500 bets is still such a tiny sample that luck plays a big part. Hoping for a bit more good luck for the next slice of 500 plays.

 

[roguejuror]

I'm ignoring the pushes.

why? you sweated them didn't you

 

[Matty]

Cause ignoring them increases my ROI.

 

[roguejuror]

what's the push rate?

 

[Matty]

21/157 = 13.4%, boss

 

[Blitty]

dp

 

[Matty]

Gonna be late with my plays today, gotta drive to Hamilton and back to pick up my new friends Jean and Maurice.

Reds are a borderline play. Someone ping me if they go to +130.