Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

[roguejuror]

One down ten winners to go...

 

[Tron]

:tigers:

 

[Matty]

Common ChiSox

 

[roguejuror]

Not now orange bird

 

[Matty]

UNBELIEVABLE

How dare a shit team lose

 

[Matty]

lol, 3 homer inning

 

[stevek]

h my:

 

[Matty]

Shut up Steve

 

[roguejuror]

It's raining at the 412

 

[Matty]

It's raining at the 412

FF cashed

 

[Matty]

Saturday May 25

FULL GAMES
DET -102
CHW +155
WSH +148
PIT +135
MIL +125
CIN +145 (POD - 33-cent edge)
SDP -124
ARI -175

FIRST FIVE
WSH +138 🟡
PIT +135
MIL +130

FIRST FIVE
2-0-1 +2.65u
YTD 70-55-17 +1.1u

FF bets are back in the black!

 

[roguejuror]

FF bets are back in the black!

Before the rooster crows in June they'll be up 10 units.

 

[Matty]

Pirates win

6-1-1 +6.73u so far today with CIN SDP ARI remaining.

LET'S KEEP DOING THAT BASEBALL

 

[Matty]

Just need 3 more outs from the Reds 🤞

 

[Matty]

Reds win!

POD is now 2-0 +3.05u

 

[Matty]

Saturday May 25

FULL GAMES
DET -102
CHW +155
WSH +148
PIT +135
MIL +125
CIN +145 (POD - 33-cent edge)
SDP -124
ARI -175

FIRST FIVE
WSH +138 🟡
PIT +135
MIL +130

FULL GAMES
6-2 +5.29u
YTD 173-164 +8.09u

FIRST FIVE
2-0-1 +2.65u
YTD 70-55-17 +1.1u

 

[Matty]

FULL GAMES
YTD 173-164 +8.09u

FIRST FIVE
YTD 70-55-17 +1.1u

POD
2-0 +3.05u

Kelly bankroll after day 20 - $221.75
New Kelly bet amount - $6.65

Sunday May 26

FULL GAMES
TOR -130
LAD -215
WSH +145
BOS -145
CHW +140
LAA EV

FIRST FIVE
MIL +120***
COL +175

***I am not actually betting this. Just tracking it for the purpose of this experiment. The model spit out BOS for the full game (4.3% edge) and MIL for the first five (2.7% edge) so I'm only betting the full game. This was caused by my WAR data being a lot more favorable to MIL's Tobias Myers when extrapolated to 200 innings pitched, which is the value I use for betting first fives.

 

[roguejuror]

I think we have to listen to the model