Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

[Matty]

Adding

FULL GAMES
ATL -108 (8.4% edge)

This might be it for today, but will check again this evening.

 

[Matty]

On second thought, I think it makes more sense to use Kershaw's extrapolated 200IP WAR value (3.3), which brings the matchup down to +/-114. Brewers are still a play, but the edge goes down to a more reasonable 4.7%. That makes YANKEES -320 the POD.

 

[Matty]

Stevie please double-check my math, thx

 

[Tron]

There is also some fuckery with the Dodgers-Brewers game. Obviously people are expecting Clayton Kershaw to do well, whereas his full-season WAR projection is shit (0.9). I dunno man.

His xFIP is lower than his ERA which is kinda rare.

Welcome back Mattyballs

 

[stevek]

Stevie please double-check my math, thx

Np.

It checks out.

 

[roguejuror]

Lets goooooo we back!!

Yes, yes, yes, I have teary eyes

 

[Matty]

I really didn't mean to take a full month off. Kind of annoyed that I missed all this data. But it was almost impossible for me to bet or even handicap the games. There's no Internet and very weak cell signal at the family cottage on the Georgian Bay. I don't know how people live there full time. Satellite signal goes out all the time.

 

[roguejuror]

that's why we need grassroots gambling outside of corporate control

we need to give back power to the people

 

[Matty]

I bet there is an underground bookie or three at the reserve next door. 🪶

 

[roguejuror]

to confirm there's no action in full games, just for tracking, right

 

[Matty]

Correct boss

I know I said I would only consider FF plays for the POD. I did some soul searching (and research) and decided that I was being ghey by excluding full games.

 

[Matty]

Monday August 12

FULL GAMES
STL -135 (5.6% edge)
BOS -126 (3.8% edge)

Adding

FULL GAMES
KCR +140 (5.1% edge)
MIL -104 (4.7% edge)
NYY -320 (POD - 8.9% edge)
COL +235 (3.1% edge)

FIRST FIVE
MIL -116 (5.7% edge)
COL +225 (8.5% edge)

Adding

FULL GAMES
ATL -108 (8.4% edge)

bump

 

[roguejuror]

I'm jumping in with the Cerveceros de Milwaukee los cinco primeros

 

[Matty]

Why can't I just win like Tron

 

[Matty]

Are you fucking kidding me Yanks

 

[Archie]

right the ship

 

[Matty]

Are you fucking kidding me

 

[roguejuror]

we are just a little rusty