Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

[betplom]

Who stole my Matty today? Was it Nelson? : (

 

[Vegas Dave]

 

[stevek]

I certainly hope everything is ok for our legend and his family!

 

[roguejuror]

I'm worried

 

[stevek]

Same here

 

[betplom]

wrong thread

 

[stevek]

POOF

 

[Matty]

I'm not dead, just demotivated and focused on other stuff, i.e. kiddo who's home with me, and riding my bike. Going to grade the last couple days and prolly call it a season. I'll be back for hockey season.

 

[Matty]

Monday August 12

FULL GAMES
STL -135 (5.6% edge)
BOS -126 (3.8% edge)

Adding

FULL GAMES
KCR +140 (5.1% edge)
MIL -104
NYY -320 (8.9% edge)
COL +235 (3.1% edge)

FIRST FIVE
MIL -116 (5.7% edge)
COL +225 (8.5% edge)

Adding

FULL GAMES
ATL -108 (8.4% edge)

FULL GAMES
2-5 -5.59u

FIRST FIVE
1-1 +1.09u

 

[Matty]

Tuesday August 13

FULL GAMES
WSH +165
CHC +130

Adding

FULL GAMES
HOU -124
KCR +106

FIRST FIVE
NYM -170

Adding

FULL GAMES
TOR -118
COL +168
SFG -110

FIRST FIVE
TOR -130
SFG -106

FULL GAMES
3-4 -0.45u

FIRST FIVE
1-2 -1.76u

 

[Matty]

FULL GAMES
YTD 292-298 -20.07u

FIRST FIVE
YTD 164-129-44 +12.43u

POD 24-24-1 -4.42u

FUKK BASEBALL !!

 

[Vegas Dave]

FUKK BASEBALL !!

 

[Tron]

, but honestly the main thing is that I had a conversation with my brother in law who plays poker and he's very skeptical of sports betting in general, and he doubts that I can make money at it. I want to prove him wrong. His (understandable) stance is that if I was making money with it back in the day I would still be doing it. Which is a fair point, except that it was never the betting that was the issue for me, it was the er, extracurriculars.

Will your brother in law be smug about his “I told you so” or will he be cool about it?

 

[betplom]

Good luck Matty this is outstanding!

What is the line on Matty Stops Making Selections By June?

And what is the max bet


Matttttayyyyyyyyy, I'm just breaking balls you cunt!!


This is actually super cool!

Go Mattyballs!!!

⚾

August, not bad though.

 

[Matty]

Will your brother in law be smug about his “I told you so” or will he be cool about it?

I updated him a couple weeks ago and he was actually supportive this time, I think largely because he quit his job and is about to resume playing poker full time (so he wants an ally).

One of his arguments was that my hope of getting significant results within 2500 bets was way too optimistic, and he was right about that.

 

[Vegas Dave]

Hopefully you don't look at this as a failure @Matty .

Valuable data collected. Just because this iteration wasn't a runaway success doesn't mean a future one can't be.

I'd be interested in workshopping ideas for tweaks and improvements before next season. There ARE models out there that exist and are profitable, trying to build one is a worthwhile endeavor.

 

[Matty]

Yeah, I'll be back next season. I have collected good data which I'm happy about.

Some stuff is weirding me out though, like the Jays and the fact that I lost every single bet on massive faves.

That last Yanks loss to the ChiSox broke my brain a little bit.

 

[Boner_18]

I think everything but the opening line is much more efficient than this approach can support. It's not my impression that the lines we bet are the result of public (dumb) money but rather large amounts of sharp action immediately following the opening line when limits are low. Also, as I alluded to in the one bet at a time thread I think that books take a side in 2024 more than they used to or at the very least are setting the line with their own very sophisticated models.

Nevertheless, fun to follow and i hope im proven wrong. Good luck with pucks.