Matty Rain's 2024-25 NHL Thread

[stevek]

Oh wow he's in all caps mode

 

[roguejuror]

Steve don't forget this dunce bet against the fun and good O's like 718 times last year 💀

this year

 

[Vegas Dave]

this year

Seems so long ago when Matty left us high and dry in the heart of the playoff race 😭

 

[Vegas Dave]

I BET THEM A LOT TOO

You bet the Bumass Jays a lot too though, even when Steve tried to warn you 💀

 

[Vegas Dave]

But I digress, new sport, new season, nothing but love and support. Took a week of wrath from @Tron for being a jinx, don't need hate from up North too.

 

[Matty]

Jays and ChiSox wrecked my rags-to-riches plan. I have some ideas for next season though.

 

[Vegas Dave]

Jays and ChiSox wrecked my rags-to-riches plan. I have some ideas for next season though.

Matty's New Idea:

"Computing... computing... bet the Jays, EV +3.4%"

 

[Matty]

Philadelphia Flyers +125

 

[Archie]

alright now!

 

[Matty]

Matty's New Idea:

"Computing... computing... bet the Jays, EV +3.4%"

So the basic idea is to use an ELO-like system (used in chess) to rank teams and assess their theoretical winrate against each other, vs. adding up each individual player's projected WAR and then computing winrates based on those sums, which is what I did last season.

Still not sure that that would prevent me from systematically betting on putrid teams like the 2024 ChiSox. There's only so much a model can do when presented with an extreme outlier.

 

[Cougar Bait]

Shit, I like Washington. The hockey team, not the city.

 

[Matty]

Flyers you dirty fokking bums

Calling it

YTD 28-30 +7.6u

 

[Matty]

(Note that I called it before I saw the Flyers' first goal.)

 

[Archie]

Flyers you dirty fokking bums

Calling it

YTD 28-30 +7.6u

seriously ?

some of our best posters here were dirty philly bums

 

[Matty]

I'm a gheysexual. It was 4-0 not that long ago.

 

[Matty]

nm

 

[Matty]

Go Flyers you beautiful bums!

 

[Archie]

unhoused soap deficient losers!