Matty Rain's 2024-25 NHL Thread

[Matty]

Can't you use serious maths to figure out the likelihood the model is trash?

If the model has a 5% edge, the minimum to be profitable or whatever, the likelihood of going 5-5744764 is X?

Something like that?

Absolutely. P-value. The P-value of all my bets so far (sample size of about 1500 between baseball and hockey) is high, meaning that it is likely that my results are due to random chance, i.e. I likely don't have a significant edge. Mind you, like VD said, I would need more data to confirm. The lower your edge, the bigger the sample size you need.

 

[stevek]

Flyers suck