Gamelive Best Bet of the Day 10/21/2014

[Tron]

"I half Kelly'd every Top 5 play since March."

-Saulty

 

[reno cool]

I wanna know more about this "model". It seems very similar to the "top of my head model" which seems to love dogs and away teams, especially early in the season.

 

[Cougar Bait]

I play all of my best bets, and like others I just use the SBR odds line about 99% of the time

 

[Cougar Bait]

NY Rangers +106 (5Dimes)

 

[Matty]

I wanna know more about this "model".

It's pretty simple. A value* is assigned to each active player, total team value is adjusted for home/away. Compare to odds, set a bet/no-bet threshold and hammer away based on simultaneous-event Kelly.

*I paid for those values. They're projections for the current season, so my model is actually that of a stranger who's definitely cleverer than me.

 

[MrMonkey]

Holy crap! If I didn't know better, I would think I'm logged in at a sports forum!

 

[Cougar Bait]

But you know better.

 

[mrquincy]

So if I win or lose say .7 of a unit, that is added or subtracted from the total, right? So if I lost a +184 bet, should I not lose 1.84 units? I'm just a bit confused is all, Matty.

 

[bacon]

You would lose one unit if you lost a +184 play.

You would lose 1.84 units if you lost a -184 play.

 

[mrquincy]

You would lose one unit if you lost a +184 play.

You would lose 1.84 units if you lost a -184 play.

Ah; so the 'easier the bet is' the more you lose if your bet is a fail. get it.

Can you understand my confusion Bacon?

NHL OT Included, Hockey
Tampa Bay Lightning 21-October-2014 6:05 PM PST
Money Line for Game +106; Pinnacle Sports

 

[bacon]

I'm too sophisticated for this shit.

 

[mrquincy]

I'm going to leave the counting up to you from now on. I will just focus on picking wnners.

:cougarbait::eek1:

 

[Blitty]

Red Wings +123

 

[reno cool]

So if I win or lose say .7 of a unit, that is added or subtracted from the total, right? So if I lost a +184 bet, should I not lose 1.84 units? I'm just a bit confused is all, Matty.

well, there goes the idea Mr.Q is somekinda gambling mastermind genius. :sad:

 

[mrquincy]

well, there goes the idea Mr.Q is somekinda gambling mastermind genius. :sad:

Sadly, I can not tell if you are being sarcastic or not. I am used to having my balls busted so

 

[reno cool]

just foking around pal.

 

[mrquincy]

It's not improbable to doubt drunken bacon math.

 

[MikeyLo]

Y'all gonna reset the records on 1/1/2015 or just keep rolling?