Gamelive Best Bet of the Day 10/21/2014

[Tron]

It's not hard to get the 5Dimes line right off of 5Dimes at the time you post your play.

It takes about as much time getting the odds off of SBR Odds.

 

[bacon]

I think all books that are real plays should be used, Saultzer is a good example of why. He has his niche using different books for his soccer plays and it's sharp and should be allowed. I do however still believe in listening to Tron in 8 out of 10 cases.

 

[Tron]

I think people like Mr.Monkey (who made it clear he wanted to post plays that he wasn't risking money on) should be able to post in the Best Bet. The more the merrier.

Matty, if we used one book, wouldn't we have a clearer picture of the ROI?

 

[Matty]

It takes about as much time getting the odds off of SBR Odds.

Not for me. I need my CRIS opener, current Pinny, etc. SBR Odds shows everything on one page.

 

[Tron]

Wait, I meant it doesn't take a long time to get the current 5Dimes line off their site.

 

[Matty]

But I don't want their line. It's like 5 extra clicks.

I could always deduce it from the reduced line displayed on SBR Odds.

But no.

 

[Tron]

We are in turmoil, boys.

Turmoil.

 

[reno cool]

we dont know what the roi is. we'd have to know the odds on all favorites to calculate that.

I'll only use the bets I make, but it makes more sense to post any available line.(I think we should stick with that)

 

[Matty]

Matty, if we used one book, wouldn't we have a clearer picture of the ROI?

Clearer how? A lot of my bets would've been no-bets. In fact my whole series of bets would've been different.

Using Pinny would be interesting, but still not all that realistic (if only because Americans can't even play there.)

I don't know that there is a way to mimic a real-life betting scenario. The current rules make for a bit of an inflated result, but it's still plausible.

IMO and all that.

 

[Matty]

we dont know what the roi is. we'd have to know the odds on all favorites to calculate that.

Average bet is prolly around EV. I know mine is well into the pluses.

 

[reno cool]

a dog will be 1 but a fav can be anything>1. there's nothing less than 1

 

[Matty]

I think people like Mr.Monkey (who made it clear he wanted to post plays that he wasn't risking money on) should be able to post in the Best Bet.

I'm not sure why he would feel like he's not welcome to post. Aren't the vast majority of BB plays air bets?

 

[bacon]

If it were up to me I would keep Mr. and Mrs. Monkey in a sex dungeon run by Peanut and I wouldn't allow them to do anything

except post.

 

[Tron]

Aren't the vast majority of BB plays air bets?

I'd estimate that only 10% of mine are air.

 

[Matty]

a dog will be 1 but a fav can be anything>1. there's nothing less than 1

True.

Just don't bet faves.

 

[Matty]

So our non-ROI (growth rate?) is roughly .14 unit per bet.

 

[reno cool]

right : we should have all made like 200k. missed opportunity

 

[Matty]

I'm kinda tempted to bet one play a day @ full Kelly based on my NHL "model". Would be a fun experiment but it would take like 3 years to reach any sort of meaningful conclusion.