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Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

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Matty
FULL GAMES
0-4 -5.21u
YTD 271-276 -15.95u

FIRST FIVE
2-3 -1.06u
YTD 152-120-35 +16.64u

POD 22-19-1 +1.42u
Click to expand...

Matty
Sunday July 7

FULL GAMES
NYM -130 (3.4% edge) :greencheck:
DET -136 (5.6% edge) :greencheck:
MIN -146 (7.5% edge) :greencheck:
TBR +116 (5.1% edge) :redx:
MIL +150 (9.8% edge) :greencheck:

FIRST FIVE
STL -118 (5.2% edge) :greencheck:
NYM -130 (9.8% edge) 🟡
CIN +146 (4.1% edge) :redx:
CLE -135 (7.5% edge) 🟡
MIN -140 (6.3% edge) 🟡
BAL -176 (POD - 10.7% edge) :greencheck:
TOR +130 (3.1% edge) :redx:
NYY -128 (3.8% edge) 🟡
Click to expand...
FULL GAMES
4-1 +3.5u
YTD 275-277 -12.45u

FIRST FIVE
2-2-4 -0.3u
YTD 154-122-39 +16.34u

POD 23-19-1 +2.42u

Better than a kick in the balls™ :handshake:
 
And we made like several dozen dollars on paper!

(I'm actually up about $500 thanks to bonuses.)

For those of you wondering why I even keep tracking full games, below is yet another coin flip simulation. 10,000 coin flips at a 52% winrate, 1% of the bankroll per play, which simulates a 4% edge. This specific run shows several losing streaks lasting several hundred, even over 1400 bets. There's a drop of about 40 units between bets # 4500 and 5900, yet total profit over the 10,000 bets is 560 units.

When dealing with a small edge, the variance is crazy.

This doesn't mean my full-game model isn't trash. It just means it's going to take a long while to get conclusive results.

Would be nice to go on a sustained winning streak like the one at the start there. +52 units over 350 bets.
10k coin flips at 52 percent winrate
 
Matty
Monday July 8

FIRST FIVE
NYM +102 (POD - 13.5% edge) :redx:
Click to expand...
Matty
Adding

FULL GAMES
STL EV (4.3% edge) :greencheck:

FIRST FIVE
STL +102 (4.8% edge) :greencheck:
CLE -138 (8.1% edge) 🟡
Click to expand...
Matty
Adding

FULL GAMES
COL +150 (5.5% edge) :redx:
TEX -148 (4.2% edge) :greencheck:
ARI +170 (4.5% edge) :redx:

FIRST FIVE
MIN -160 (12.2% edge) 🟡
ARI +150 (4.9% edge) :redx:
Click to expand...
FULL GAMES
2-2 +/-0u
YTD 277-279 -12.45u

FIRST FIVE
1-2-2 -1u
YTD 155-124-41 +15.64u

POD 23-20-1 +1.42u
 
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