roguejuror
matty's hype man
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there still hasn't been a triple consensus with you tron and matty
Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread
Tron
New Member
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I have no opinion on this game
Matty
0-fers Will Happen™
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Adding
FULL GAMES
DET -136 (5.6% edge)
MIN -146 (7.5% edge)
TBR +116 (5.1% edge)
FIRST FIVE
CIN +146 (4.1% edge)
CLE -135 (7.5% edge)
MIN -140 (6.3% edge)
BAL -176 (10.7% edge - POD candidate)
FULL GAMES
DET -136 (5.6% edge)
MIN -146 (7.5% edge)
TBR +116 (5.1% edge)
FIRST FIVE
CIN +146 (4.1% edge)
CLE -135 (7.5% edge)
MIN -140 (6.3% edge)
BAL -176 (10.7% edge - POD candidate)
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Matty
0-fers Will Happen™
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Adding
FULL GAMES
MIL +150 (9.8% edge)
FIRST FIVE
TOR +130 (3.1% edge)
NYY -128 (3.8% edge)
POD is BAL FF -176.
FULL GAMES
MIL +150 (9.8% edge)
FIRST FIVE
TOR +130 (3.1% edge)
NYY -128 (3.8% edge)
POD is BAL FF -176.
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CASPERWAIT$
Drama Moobs Your Mom
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One day
tullamore
angry and drunk
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When this if it does happen all gamelivers should be required to bet it. We are all in this together.
Matty
0-fers Will Happen™
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FULL GAMESSunday July 7
FULL GAMES
NYM -130 (3.4% edge)
DET -136 (5.6% edge)
MIN -146 (7.5% edge)
TBR +116 (5.1% edge)
MIL +150 (9.8% edge)
FIRST FIVE
STL -118 (5.2% edge)
NYM -130 (9.8% edge) 🟡
CIN +146 (4.1% edge)
CLE -135 (7.5% edge) 🟡
MIN -140 (6.3% edge) 🟡
BAL -176 (POD - 10.7% edge)
TOR +130 (3.1% edge)
NYY -128 (3.8% edge) 🟡
4-1 +3.5u
YTD 275-277 -12.45u
FIRST FIVE
2-2-4 -0.3u
YTD 154-122-39 +16.34u
POD 23-19-1 +2.42u
Better than a kick in the balls™
roguejuror
matty's hype man
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100 pages of the Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread 
roguejuror
matty's hype man
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Historically the views to posts ratio is 7:1 among us core group of visitors for a typical thread, this one is doing 11:1 or 60% more than a normal thread, which we can only conclude that there's frequent outsiders coming back to check the thread daily. Good job Machu you have organic followers.
Matty
0-fers Will Happen™
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And we made like several dozen dollars on paper!
(I'm actually up about $500 thanks to bonuses.)
For those of you wondering why I even keep tracking full games, below is yet another coin flip simulation. 10,000 coin flips at a 52% winrate, 1% of the bankroll per play, which simulates a 4% edge. This specific run shows several losing streaks lasting several hundred, even over 1400 bets. There's a drop of about 40 units between bets # 4500 and 5900, yet total profit over the 10,000 bets is 560 units.
When dealing with a small edge, the variance is crazy.
This doesn't mean my full-game model isn't trash. It just means it's going to take a long while to get conclusive results.
Would be nice to go on a sustained winning streak like the one at the start there. +52 units over 350 bets.
(I'm actually up about $500 thanks to bonuses.)
For those of you wondering why I even keep tracking full games, below is yet another coin flip simulation. 10,000 coin flips at a 52% winrate, 1% of the bankroll per play, which simulates a 4% edge. This specific run shows several losing streaks lasting several hundred, even over 1400 bets. There's a drop of about 40 units between bets # 4500 and 5900, yet total profit over the 10,000 bets is 560 units.
When dealing with a small edge, the variance is crazy.
This doesn't mean my full-game model isn't trash. It just means it's going to take a long while to get conclusive results.
Would be nice to go on a sustained winning streak like the one at the start there. +52 units over 350 bets.
Matty
0-fers Will Happen™
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I messed up the FF results, we actually broke even yesterday. Fixed.FULL GAMES
4-1 +3.5u
YTD 275-277 -12.45u
FIRST FIVE
2-2-4 +/-0u
YTD 154-122-39 +16.64u
POD 23-19-1 +2.42u
Better than a kick in the balls™
Matty
0-fers Will Happen™
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Monday July 8
FIRST FIVE
NYM +102 (13.5% edge - POD candidate)
FIRST FIVE
NYM +102 (13.5% edge - POD candidate)
Matty
0-fers Will Happen™
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Adding
FULL GAMES
STL EV (4.3% edge)
FIRST FIVE
STL +102 (4.8% edge)
CLE -138 (8.1% edge)
FULL GAMES
STL EV (4.3% edge)
FIRST FIVE
STL +102 (4.8% edge)
CLE -138 (8.1% edge)
Matty
0-fers Will Happen™
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Adding
FULL GAMES
COL +150 (5.5% edge)
TEX -148 (4.2% edge)
ARI +170 (4.5% edge)
FIRST FIVE
MIN -160 (12.2% edge)
ARI +150 (4.9% edge)
FULL GAMES
COL +150 (5.5% edge)
TEX -148 (4.2% edge)
ARI +170 (4.5% edge)
FIRST FIVE
MIN -160 (12.2% edge)
ARI +150 (4.9% edge)
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roguejuror
matty's hype man
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pinging matty
Matty
0-fers Will Happen™
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Been running around all day, will be at the Gambol Station shortly
Matty
0-fers Will Happen™
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Monday July 8
FIRST FIVE
NYM +102 (POD - 13.5% edge)
Adding
FULL GAMES
STL EV (4.3% edge)
FIRST FIVE
STL +102 (4.8% edge)
CLE -138 (8.1% edge) 🟡
FULL GAMESAdding
FULL GAMES
COL +150 (5.5% edge)
TEX -148 (4.2% edge)
ARI +170 (4.5% edge)
FIRST FIVE
MIN -160 (12.2% edge) 🟡
ARI +150 (4.9% edge)
2-2 +/-0u
YTD 277-279 -12.45u
FIRST FIVE
1-2-2 -1u
YTD 155-124-41 +15.64u
POD 23-20-1 +1.42u
CASPERWAIT$
Drama Moobs Your Mom
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I'd love to know what your record with strictly underdogs in full games is