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Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

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Matty
FULL GAMES
3-3 -1.83u
YTD 260-259 -6.71u

FIRST FIVE
2-1 +0.05u
YTD 135-107-34 +12.28u

POD 19-16-1 +2.58u

Kelly bankroll after day 54 - $162.02
New Kelly bet amount - $4.86

Sunday June 30

FULL GAMES
PIT +170 (9.6% edge) :greencheck:

FIRST FIVE
PIT +150 (10.1% edge) :greencheck:
Click to expand...

Matty
Marlins FF +200 is a borderline play. I'd need a few cents better though.

Adding

FULL GAMES
TOR -110 (18.3% edge) :ohmy: (this is assuming Soto is out - still a play if he's in, likely POD if he's out) :redx:
NYM -125 (12.5% edge) :redx:
WSH +160 (3.8% edge) :redx:
KCR -130 (17.6% edge) :greencheck:

FIRST FIVE
COL +210 (8.9% edge) :greencheck:

Back after lunch for the 4/7PM games.
Click to expand...

Matty
Adding

FULL GAMES
BAL -162 (7.4% edge) :redx:

FIRST FIVE
BAL -145 (8.9% edge) :redx:
Click to expand...
FULL GAMES
2-4 -2.27u
YTD 262-263 -8.98u

FIRST FIVE
2-1 +2.15u
YTD 137-108-34 +14.43u

POD 20-16-1 +3.58u

Kelly bankroll after day 54 - $161.44
New Kelly bet amount - $4.84
 
I really tried to make Jays a no-play today. I tried a different approach using a different weighting for pitching and a different WAR base data, but Jays were even more of a play. They just keep underperforming. I'm completely baffled.
 
Matty
FULL GAMES
2-4 -2.27u
YTD 262-263 -8.98u

FIRST FIVE
2-1 +2.15u
YTD 137-108-34 +14.43u

POD 20-16-1 +3.58u

Kelly bankroll after day 54 - $161.44
New Kelly bet amount - $4.84
Click to expand...
Matty
Monday July 1

FULL GAMES
TOR +125 (6.1% edge) :redx:

FIRST FIVE
TOR +110 (3.1% edge) :redx:

FYI I'm only betting first five plays until further notice, full games are posted for data-gathering purposes only. :handshake: No POD today.
Click to expand...
FULL GAMES
YTD 262-264 -9.98u

FIRST FIVE
YTD 137-109-34 +13.43u

POD 20-16-1 +3.58u

Kelly bankroll after day 56 - $151.76
New Kelly bet amount - $4.55
 
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