Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

padres two on bottom of the 5th

designated hitter Solano pushes two bottom of the 5th

Marlins are tough

Tron

Marlins are tough

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Fokking pricks. Again.

Matty

FULL GAMES
YTD 246-247 -3.83u

FIRST FIVE
YTD 127-100-32 +11.66u

POD 16-14-1 +2.53u

Kelly bankroll after day 49 - $175.33
New Kelly bet amount - $5.26

Tuesday June 25

FULL GAMES
TOR +110 (4.5% edge)
NYM +125 (3.7% edge)
COL +225 (3.2% edge)
KCR -195 (POD - 9% edge)
MIL -110 (3.2% edge)
CHW +185 (8.3% edge)

FIRST FIVE
CLE +140 (4% edge)
NYY -148 (3.5% edge)
STL +110 (3% edge)
SDP +128 (8.8% edge)
CHC -102 (8.2% edge)

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FULL GAMES
3-3 -0.6u
YTD 249-250 -4.43u

FIRST FIVE
2-2 +0.18u
YTD 129-102-32 +11.84u

POD 16-15-1 +0.58u

Kelly bankroll after day 50 - $173.12
New Kelly bet amount - $5.19

Wednesday June 26

FULL GAMES
SEA -108 (6.7% edge)

FIRST FIVE
CIN -135 (4.1% edge)

Adding

FULL GAMES
OAK +116 (3.7% edge)
SDP -188 (9.2% edge - POD candidate)

FIRST FIVE
MIL +114 (3% edge)
OAK +116 (7.8% edge)
TOR +125 (edge depends on Varsho's status)

Adding

FIRST FIVE
ARI EV (3.4% edge)

Waiting for Teoscar Hernandez's status before doing LAD-CHW.

Adding

FULL GAMES
CLE +195 (3.33% edge)
CHW +148 (4.7% edge )

tonight smells like bing bong night

I could use a nice dose of bing bongs.

Ima take today off to brush up on my WAR knowledge. Something is not jibing.

We just passed this season's halfway point and my beloved White Sox now sit at 21-61, for an execrable 25.6% winrate. They lost me 9.23u on full games but somehow won me 3.56u on first fives. These results are unremarkable and not really cause for concern.

What's giving me pause is that WAR models still assign the team a positive cumulative WAR. For reference, a team with a cumulative WAR of 0 is expected to win 48 games. ChiSox are not on pace to hit that. Could be bad luck, sure, but the current WAR numbers are way too optimistic for the rest of the season. Same for the Jays. They also seem a bit too pessimistic for the better teams like the Yankees and O's.

Something is not jibing. BRB.

(Still gonna post plays in the One Bet At A Time thread. I still feel comfortable playing the higher % edge plays.)

i agree today is a sabbatical

My main concern is that I misunderstood some key element of WAR. So far, from what I'm reading, I have not.

I tried to talk with AI about WAR and it confused me more, at the end we both ended hallucinating

So the 2023 A's had the exact same record after 82 games (21-61). They went 29-51 in the 2nd half for a final record of 50-112, meaning that you would have needed to get at least +224 per game on average to break even, if you were to bet them every game - +290 for the first half and +175 for the second half. That's bad.




So far this season, I got an average price of +148 on my beloved ChiSox. One could be tempted to say "well shit, let's just fade them for the rest of the season." But if they do sort-of-turn-it-around like the A's did in 2023, you need to get -175 or better on their opponent to at least break even.

The Braves are around -350 today.

I'm not sure where I'm going with this. The only thing I know is that WAR is predicting a positive regression for our beloved Sox and Jays.

WAR is not meant to directly reflect team results. It assigns a value to each player's actions and there is supposed to be a strong correlation between a team's cumulative WAR and their total season wins. That's actually the case for most teams. But underperforming teams like our two beloved are currently dragging us down.

It's tempting to read into it, but I'm afraid that that would be a fallacy.

We keep on trucking.

I've bet ChiSox 37 times - 34 times on the ML and 3 times FF. I'm 9-25 ML and 3-0 FF.

I feel like WAR is not as accurate for pitchers as it is for position players