Who is going to be the next President of the United States?

[Vegas Dave]

I’m not being snarky just genuinely curious.

How do you know this?

How one French gambler’s huge bet spiked Trump’s odds – and may threaten democracy

Funded by billionaire Trump supporter Peter Thiel, Polymarket is forecasting a landslide for the Republican candidate. But some fear the massively inflated odds will be used by the Republican candidate as evidence that the election was stolen, writes Anthony Cuthbertson

www.the-independent.com

Also political betting ads seem to be targeted towards conservative men:

Polymarket spends over $50,000 on social media ads, boosted by conservative influencer

The advertisements from Polymarket have been controversial, with some of them not being clearly marked as reflecting odds that are based on bets.

www.nbcnews.com

Sites like wallstreetbets and other crypto/poker/gambling communities most likely to bet also lean towards Trump.

None of this to say he won't win or isn't the favorite, I just don't think the betting market accurately reflects true odds at all.

 

[Matty]

Yeah I don't know what to think now. My original thinking was that Trump voters are going to be especially silent this time around. There are likely way more soft Dems that have become Trumpists than the other way around, largely because of the immigration crisis.

But then Kamala is smartly focusing on abortion rights which might well mobilize tons of women.

I'll probably pass and just stock up on popcorn. Like, seriously.

 

[Cougar Bait]

The replies here are Grade A

https://twitter.com/x/status/1853468136042901779

 

[Vegas Dave]

The replies here are Grade A

https://twitter.com/x/status/1853468136042901779

We just need some betting market data from the good ol' days!

 

[FairWarning]

Talk me out of putting all my sportsbook balances on Trump.

My main concern is that the final outcome might take several days/weeks.

It’ll take some time. Michigan already announced they will be late in counting. It’s a disgrace that they had four years to solve this, and it’s a bigger joke than before.

Brock L bet on Harris this weekend +120.

 

[stevek]

What a FUCKING. JOKE.

 

[Cougar Bait]

It’ll take some time. Michigan already announced they will be late in counting. It’s a disgrace that they had four years to solve this, and it’s a bigger joke than before.

Brock L bet on Harris this weekend +120.

Landers likes Harris

This is a GREAT sign Matty.

 

[FairWarning]

Landers likes Harris

This is a GREAT sign Matty.

There was no way he was betting on a R, not in a college town.

 

[Cougar Bait]

It's been decided boyz

https://twitter.com/x/status/1853504818490577055

 

[kato]

kato thinks harris 293 x trump 245

https://www.270towin.com/maps/mX2nw

 

[Vegas Dave]

@Cougar Bait and @FairWarning , what % chance do you give Trump of winning?

I've gone back and forth but currently lean ever so slightly towards Kamala. Like 55% chance.

 

[Vegas Dave]

Was a lot more confident that Trump would win in 2016 and Biden would win in 2020. Come to think of it I'm not sure I've ever predicted incorrectly 🤔

 

[FairWarning]

@Cougar Bait and @FairWarning , what % chance do you give Trump of winning?

I've gone back and forth but currently lean ever so slightly towards Kamala. Like 55% chance.

I don’t think it’s a fair election, 40% tops.

If he wins, he will win big. Anything else will lead to corruption.

 

[Vegas Dave]

I don’t think it’s a fair election, 40% tops.

If he wins, he will win big. Anything else will lead to corruption.

So you've got Kamala at 60% chance to win? That's pretty insane value at +130ish, you should fire.

 

[Vegas Dave]

Speaking of odds, current seeing -158 Trump, +133 Kamala. Vig free thats -145/+145.

Anyone who wants action on Trump at that price, I'm down. We can send $ to Roguey for escrow. Result based on how result is graded at reputable books, Roguey final say as arbitor.

 

[Cougar Bait]

I'm not betting the election, if that gives you any idea of how I feel Davie

 

[Vegas Dave]

I'm not betting the election, if that gives you any idea of how I feel Davie

You and everyone else on that side, it seems.

 

[Vegas Dave]

Very strange he's the betting favorite when everyone thinks it's rigged against him.