ChuteBoxe's UFC 118 Preview and Picks
For months now we've been hearing how Frankie Edgar's win against BJ Penn was a fluke. Everything from the temperature at the outside venue in Abu Dhabi, to a rumored possible injury, to the judges making a mistake. Even BJ Penn himself has not admitted defeat in the UFC 112 fight, mentioning that Frankie was scared to stand and bang with him and that he ran from him. That's my problem here. Usually, you would like BJ in this spot because he's hungrier, more determined, etc...Only problem is, how do you learn from a fight that you don't truly feel you lost? I think the revenge factor is getting blown out of proportion.
In a 25 minute fight, I watched Frankie Edgar beat BJ Penn fair and square. He outclassed him standing, and had no real problem taking BJ to the ground. He had more heart, and more determination. How is this fight any different? What I see is two fighters on different paths. You have a fighter who's progression as a fighter has drastically improved in all of his fights, so what's going to happen here? He will look even better, IMO. And another, in BJ Penn, who for the first time in a while looks beatable in the lightweight division. Or, is Frankie Edgar that good?
I think you'll see more of Frankie Edgar's wrestling displayed this time out. BJ will try to cut the cage off and try to get Frankie to engage a little more, which will leave open more opportunities for the takedown. I'm sorry, Frankie Edgar is hands down the better wrestler. BJ Penn is notorious for his sprawl, but he's outmatched again in this department against Edgar.
He beat him once, he's going to beat him again. Give me the champion at +230 or higher.
Frankie Edgar (+258) risking 2 Units @ 5Dimes
This is a close fight no matter how you slice it. Kenny Florian has nice muay thai, slick submissions, and an arsenal of unconventional weapons. He's the hometown fighter, and will get a tremendous pop from the crowd. This could play into the referee's eagerness to stand up or seperate these fighters if Gray doesn't stay active. He's beaten two solid wrestlers in Joe Stevenson and Takanormi Gomi, but the fight against a good wrestler that really stands out to me is his bloody loss to Sean Sherk.
Gray Maynard is a better wrestler than Sherk IMO, with good takedowns, and a great clinch game, he also has a rock solid chin. He will look to impose his will throughout the fight, and as long as he doesn't look to slug it out with Ken-Flo and sticks to the gameplan Xtreme Couture sets up for him, he should pick up the decision victory. I would hold off on making this wager until it gets a little closer to fight time. The public will be all over Florian.
Gray Maynard (+140) risking 2 Units @ Bookmaker
This should be an interesting fight as Marcus Davis has the one punch knockout power to end the fight against Nate Diaz at any point in time being an ex-professional boxer. Unfortunately for him, Nate Diaz is the better all around MMA fighter. He has the reach advantage, and a nice crisp jab to contend standing up. Not to mention, Diaz is great at Brazilian Jiu Jisu not only from top position, but even on his back by using his long legs to his advantage. I think at these odds, Diaz is a very strong wager, and will win the fight rather easily.
Nate Diaz (-190) for 1 Unit @ TheGreek
My Record:
YTD: 81-65 (+50.33 Units)
1 Unit = 2% of your total bankroll
But anyways we were all there waiting for the rapture. When it didn't happen we took off and did some drugs or something.
