Hooligans Sportsbook

The Polaroid Random Thoughts Baseball Thread

  • Start date
  • Replies
    3,185 Replies •
  • Views 243,444 Views
Ok, so as of the latest Steamer update at FanGraphs:

Sixto Sanchez is worth 0.3 WAR
Declan Cronin is -0.3
Burch Smith -0.1
Calvin Faucher is 0.1

I have the full game as a +/-120 matchup after adjusting lineups and Colorado's ineptitude on the road. Marlins are the fave. But that's assuming a 5.2 inning effort from both starters and 3.1 innings from each bullpen. If you give a couple innings to each Marlin, the line moves towards Colorado by about 3 cents.

The first 5 matchup with Sixto being the only pitcher used is a coin flip (EV). With an even mix of the same four guys, Marlins become a +108 dog.

Miami's overall bullpen is stronger than Colorado's. Marlins usual closer and setup guys (Scott and Nardi) are worth a combined 0.7 WAR to Colorado's 0.2. And like I said earlier, most short relief guys are worth right around 0.

Right now I'm seeing -140/+120 for the full game which is a no-bet for me, but with a strong lean towards Colorado.

Now, I'm seeing -145/+115 for the first five, so COL 1st 5 is an official play. :handshake:
 
Obviously, this isn't super precise because we have no real idea who's going to pitch for how long. And WAR's weakness is that it favors traditional starters. But pitching is just one piece of the puzzle, and with the odds being quite favorable on the 1st five inning matchup, I really like my odds on having an edge on that +115. How big of an edge that might be, I haven't a clue. I'll only be able to retroactively compute a average edge after making thousands of plays. :handshake:
 
The 9-24 Marlins are tearing it down early this year.

Arraez traded to the Padres.

They weren't re-signing Arraez (a very likeable but singles hitting hitter who's slow and not a good defender) for $100 million + so it's a smart baseball move IF one of the prospects pans out.

But it's a sad day for Marlins fans because Arraez is extremely likeable.