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The Polaroid Random Thoughts Baseball Thread

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Archie
flukes was the wrong word.... but there are often stories behind stats...

hypothetical situation, that actually happens quite a bit involving the Pirates organization...

You are gonna trade a guy like D. Lee or Ryan Ludwick.

you have a list of Potential PTBNL's

even though your trade is just a salary dump. You are gonna wanna get the PTBNL with the most upside, and/or best chance of reaching the Majors...
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But when you get into a PTBNL scenario then you're not picking one of the premier prospects from a team, you're picking a random guy from a number of second/third tier prospects from a team. Generally players that the dealing team aren't expecting to play in the majors to any large degree. If one PTBNL turns out to be a superstar then that's purely random variation, baseball talent is very hard to scout. Although nothing relevant to PTBNL (but very relevant to random variation of talent) Pujols was drafted after his first college year in 1999 in the 13th round and was an All Star in 2001.
 
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Polaroid
But when you get into a PTBNL scenario then you're not picking one of the premier prospects from a team, you're picking a random guy from a number of second/third tier prospects from a team. Generally players that the dealing team aren't expecting to play in the majors to any large degree. If one PTBNL turns out to be a superstar then that's purely random variation, baseball talent is very hard to scout. Although nothing relevant to PTBNL (but very relevant to random variation of talent) Pujols was drafted after his first college year in 1999 in the 13th round and was an All Star in 2001.
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its not isolated to PTBNL's

works with real prospects in bigger trades, works with international signings...

how do you decide to pay millions of dollars or NOT to a 16 year old Pitcher? not through stats...

How do you decide who to take in the rule V draft and possibly waste a 25 man roster spot for an entire year???? through stats alone? no way

I'm not talking about capping here... I'm talking Scouts

Scouts will never be obsolete...

the old scouts need to learn about stats, metrics, puters, ect.... but there will ALWAYS be scouts

the new breed is taught their organizations emphasis on certain Sabermetrics and there is more emphasis on that..... but you'll never go to High level HS games, college games, minorleague games ect and NOT see scouts sitting there with paper and pen, or taperecorder, stopwatch, radar gun, and laptop....


scouting will never go away
 
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Polaroid
(but very relevant to random variation of talent) Pujols was drafted after his first college year in 1999 in the 13th round and was an All Star in 2001.
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many many exception to the rule type arguments can be made on both sides of this coin...


But you'd have to agree that first round draft picks make it to the majors and succeed at a higher rate than 13th round right?

and 13th round picks historically have done better than 53rd round picks....

outliars and exceptions to the rule arguments notwithstanding...


you'll have alot more round 10 guys that flame out in 1-2 years of MILB than First round guys that flame out or slowly fade away after 6 years...


there is a reason guys are getting picked in the first 45ish picks in the first round.....

and you can't tell me its just stats
 
I think you're trying your best to agree with me but trying your best to seem like you're not.

Scouting is very important in the MLB pre-draft scenarios, less so afterwards in a particular player's career. How many high school and college first rounders are immediately MLB ready compared to NFL and NBA? MLB drafts are pretty much a crapshoot, you get an A-Rod in 1993 and you get a Bryan Bullington in 2002. And then add in Pujols to totally shake everything up.

Scouts are really important but their importance declines the further a player gets in their career. Whether you discuss the PTBNL or the Rule 5 draft, the team which owns the rights to a particular player knows a lot more about them than a team interested in them. That's because the owning team offers them as a PTBNL or exposes them as a potential Rule 5 draftee.

In conclusion, the best players get picked earlier. But there are a lot more burnouts in MLB.
 
Polaroid
I think you're trying your best to agree with me but trying your best to seem like you're not.

Scouting is very important in the MLB pre-draft scenarios, less so afterwards in a particular player's career. How many high school and college first rounders are immediately MLB ready compared to NFL and NBA? MLB drafts are pretty much a crapshoot, you get an A-Rod in 1993 and you get a Bryan Bullington in 2002. And then add in Pujols to totally shake everything up.

you could shake it up with better exception to the rules than Pujols (edit:not sure where Mickey came from sorry edit

Scouts are really important but their importance declines the further a player gets in their career. Whether you discuss the PTBNL or the Rule 5 draft, the team which owns the rights to a particular player knows a lot more about them than a team interested in them. That's because the owning team offers them as a PTBNL or exposes them as a potential Rule 5 draftee.


Dave Littlefield did not know more about his team thanks to his scouts or manage his roster better than opposing teams in 2002 rule 5 draft....he was the laughing stock and a big part of why the Pirates sucked and continue to suck....they could not evaluate talent at all...
In conclusion, the best players get picked earlier. But there are a lot more burnouts in MLB. I would without a doubt that baseball talent/skill/aptitude is alot harder to evaluate, and it is because of the type of honing the raw talent needs at each level....you illustrate that by mentioning that there are fewer draft picks that go right to the MLB level (leake was the last, and I'd say it happens about 2 times every decade in the modern era) the MISSES and FLOPS thus are not just attributed to the scouts or the MILB personal of that team....but to the difficulties of time....it can take 1.5-6+ years for a player to make his way through the minors. Inevitable injuries, life crisis, lack of confidence, boredom, home sickness, need for $ ect contribute to washing out as well
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All in All, while it is harder to evaluate young talent (and I agree that it is needed more so the younger the players are) I think you may over-state the SUCCESSFUL #1 draft picks in baseball, that flop....and under-estimate the # that happen in NFL, NBA drafts....

just looking purely at #1's

by the Way Bullington is a bad example in that he was a #1 that actually MADE it to the big leagues, even if he has sucked... there are many that NEVER came close to it...

but you also have alot of Tony Mandarich and Ryan Leaf and Kwame Brown's and Michael Olokandi's

again i've already stated that the watching games/scouting games as a capper would be worthless for the most part, before you entered into the discussion...

so unless you are saying that Scouts are completely Useless.... i'm NOT disagreeing with you.

After my workout, we will re-visit advanced scouting, and rule v drafts


things to think about..... If I were you I would replace Pujols with Bautista in your argument about the random-ness of player's becoming good..... but I think there are ways I could use Bautista's odd career path in MY argument as well...


again its not just Rule V and PTNL's

the Pirates are starting to rely heavily upon some of the A+,AA,AAA, and AAAA talent that they have acquired in trades for some of their vet salary dump trade em before the season ends and they are free agents kinda deals...

take a look at the past few trades the Pirates and Yanks have taken part in.

sorry to use so much Pirate examples, but I know their system by far off the top of my head than I do any others
 
Archie
many many exception to the rule type arguments can be made on both sides of this coin...


But you'd have to agree that first round draft picks make it to the majors and succeed at a higher rate than 13th round right?

and 13th round picks historically have done better than 53rd round picks....

outliars and exceptions to the rule arguments notwithstanding...


you'll have alot more round 10 guys that flame out in 1-2 years of MILB than First round guys that flame out or slowly fade away after 6 years...


there is a reason guys are getting picked in the first 45ish picks in the first round.....

and you can't tell me its just stats
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1st rounders will always be given a better chance to succeed vs a 13th rounder. Many 1st round talent slip because of signability.
 
FairWarning
1st rounders will always be given a better chance to succeed vs a 13th rounder. Many 1st round talent slip because of signability.
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very true

again with the Pirates

they have taken some risks, drafting "unsignable" guys lately and then offering them way way way above slot money.

it worked with a HS hitter Bell this year, who was supposed to be a top 10 talent. but he and his family sent a letter to all the teams saying he was enrolled @ Texas and not gonna sign.

Pirates offered him 5 million and changed his mind. so they got two top 10 talents (according to pawn scouts) in one draft

they did the same the year before with Stetson Allie
 
last night my nephew got a ball at a pirate game. foul ball of josh harrison's bat

I've never even come close to getting a ball from live action...

this 11 year old ass hole is gonna be rubbing my face in this shit when I see him....

Casper we gotta step up our game for the sept 28th sox game...get us prime foul ball area seats..


anyways in that game. two pirates with the first name PEDRO hit triples...
that's gotta be a first in pirate history if not NL or MLB history


I think in the VSL or DSL the record is 6 guys named Pedro hitting a triple in the same game...
 
Pirates lineup for the drubbing at St. Louis's hands tonight

Presley LF,
Walker 2B,
McCutchen CF
Lee 1B,
Doumit C,
Jones RF,
Alvarez 3B,
Cedeno SS,
Lincoln P.


5 out of those 9 players were first round draft picks!!!!!
 
I think the Pirates once had 6 first round draft picks in their starting lineup once last year.

they have a few mediocre first round picks make the show, and McCutch....and they collected quite a few washed up first rounders the last few years off the trash dump....
 
Daft
Watching all the games is impossible so I agree with MF'r that it's a joke.
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So why try to watch all the games? I see some write-ups on the various sites and they are a joke. How many times have people played the Tigers the last month? I don't need a math model to tell me they are good, really good. I'm pissed I didn't play them every day. Best way is to follow a few teams.
 
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