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The Polaroid Random Thoughts Baseball Thread

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Archie
hate the yankees
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Polaroid, there is this clown raiders over at peeps place. He has been going on and on recently about how sabermetrics and other advanced stats are bs and the best way to analyze baseball is by watching every game. Im not sure how one watches 45 hours of baseball per day, but I guess he does it.
 
Watching games probably is a better way of analyzing the true talent of players, especially so with defense and pitching where UZR and FIP/xFIP are not perfect (but still the best available measures of the two). If you have the time to analyze every pitch a pitcher throws and every defensive move made (and probably having to come up with a unique measure for both but we could probably give a pass to the advanced stats on batting since it's already pretty good) - and then have to re-watch each defensive move a couple of times with a stopwatch to ensure that the reason for a hit is truly down to the skill of the hitter or the lack of skill of the pitcher and/or defense - then you probably have got small edge over advanced stats. Assuming you can aggregate all of this data per game in an hour which would be impressive (add that to three hours per game and assuming 14 games per day) and then somehow fit 56 hours of watching/analysis and sleeping in each 24 hour period then you're obviously Superman and you should be saving the world rather than betting on baseball.
 
Baseball hasn't gotten rid of Scouts yet... and they never will..

there needs to be explanations given for possible flukes in stats and potential ways that trends in stats, may or may not be altered, taught, improved upon by coaching...

McCutch will get a contract done with the Pirates this off-season...

Pirates have been showing they are willing to shell out the $$$$$ they've been saving over the past few years on MLB roster on getting a team together for 2013-14 window...

I hope the Nuttings continue on that promise/trend and go ahead and take a chance on McCutch for an extension
 
need them both

as far as Raider's goes.... He most likely is like RyanXL and watches parts of all the games live, and then condensed games of ones he wants to focus on ect......

I don't think, that watching that much baseball gives you anything more than an extra miniscule edge...... if anything it might hurt because it makes you over-confident and you look for ways to bet what you confirm through your own eyes as a potential inefficiency in the market, that isn't really there.....

because you want to believe and prove through self-serving bias, that you can bet based on your hunches and scouting
 
Archie
Baseball hasn't gotten rid of Scouts yet... and they never will..
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The biggest way of getting surplus value in baseball is from scouting related to draft signings since you're getting the maximum time before they hit free agency (and assuming an efficient player development program). Scouting "projects" is pretty hit and miss and the value is generally minimal (and certainly largely hit and miss). Both the Red and White Sox didn't get a thing out of Bartolo Colon in 2009/10 but the Yankees did in 2011 but even this year he wasn't that valuable.

Archie
there needs to be explanations given for possible flukes in stats and potential ways that trends in stats, may or may not be altered, taught, improved upon by coaching..
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Not really - any "fluke" in stats (as in they are performing better than they should) can generally be written off as random variation in the same way that you have players underperforming. Some players might adapt to play better than they "should" but do you really want to watch hours and hours of baseball to prove that fact?

Archie
McCutch will get a contract done with the Pirates this off-season...
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They should to to cover his arbitration years and some time from his free agency period. For trade bait if nothing else.
 
flukes was the wrong word.... but there are often stories behind stats...

hypothetical situation, that actually happens quite a bit involving the Pirates organization...

You are gonna trade a guy like D. Lee or Ryan Ludwick.

you have a list of Potential PTBNL's

even though your trade is just a salary dump. You are gonna wanna get the PTBNL with the most upside, and/or best chance of reaching the Majors...

you can't just look at the Stats of a 20 year old pitcher Drafted out of HS that is in the Low A level...

why not? the Pirates for instance, typically have a large amount of HS draftees ONLY throw FASTBALLS or 90% fastballs until they master Location and all the grip variations that the development team wants...


if you just look at straight stats, the numbers are skewed...and they are skewed for a reason. and you don't know it, unless you realize that he is one of the kids on the farm that the Pirates are only letting use off speed stuff on his pitch #'s 50-70 in a particular start...

you don't blindly look at DSL, VSL, Short Season, A-, A+ ballplayers and their stats..... that would be really dumb
 
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