Hooligans Sportsbook

The Durito 500

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MonkeyF0cker
Actually, in 500 bets, if you were to bet all -600 ML's with an actual FV of 84%, you'd have a 14.957% chance of showing a profit even with a negative edge (429 successes out of 500). If you were to bet 500 -110 spreads where the FV is 50%, you'd have a 15.183% chance of showing a profit. It's actually disadvantageous to bet higher ML's with a negative edge (and the negative edge that I proposed for the large ML is much smaller than the ATS one).
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:yousodumb:
 
MonkeyF0cker
Actually, in 500 bets, if you were to bet all -600 ML's with an actual FV of 84%, you'd have a 14.957% chance of showing a profit even with a negative edge (429 successes out of 500). If you were to bet 500 -110 spreads where the FV is 50%, you'd have a 15.183% chance of showing a profit. It's actually disadvantageous to bet higher ML's with a negative edge (and the negative edge that I proposed for the large ML is much smaller than the ATS one).
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but wally has an edge dude. he'll play ncaab spreads up to 5pts of what he thinks it should be.
 
MonkeyF0cker
Actually, in 500 bets, if you were to bet all -600 ML's with an actual FV of 84%, you'd have a 14.957% chance of showing a profit even with a negative edge (429 successes out of 500). If you were to bet 500 -110 spreads where the FV is 50%, you'd have a 15.183% chance of showing a profit. It's actually disadvantageous to bet higher ML's with a negative edge (and the negative edge that I proposed for the large ML is much smaller than the ATS one).
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ah. good post. I was wondering what the probabilities were assuming a 5%vig. Your best bet would probably be to bet 500 500-1 shots. Even if true odds were 550-1 youd still be a favorite to win the bet.
:clueless: Am I wrong?
 
I don't know what the hell you guys are talking about but I think it's a ploy to try and get me thinking about the math and not picking winners but it ain't gonna work. I got enough Jethro Bodine math down to know that if I win way more than I lose I will profit.
 
reno cool
ah. good post. I was wondering what the probabilities were assuming a 5%vig. Your best bet would probably be to bet 500 500-1 shots. Even if true odds were 550-1 youd still be a favorite to win the bet.
:clueless: Am I wrong?
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No. You're absolutely correct. If the FV were 0.154% on every bet and you bet +50001 (+50000 would only be breakeven for one winner) on 500 bets, you'd have a 53.726% chance of showing a profit.
 
You aren't being held accountable to anything Durito. Your word is enough verification for everyone. Mine are just easier to grade cause I don't do exotics and stuff. Also I don't have as many at any one time as you either.
 
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