The Durito 500

[wal66]

McB, I haven't ignored your post. I am sure everything you have cautioned about the Richmond game is valid but hey they have lost 8 times in those previous 5 seasons so maybe tonight they'll get their 8th.

 

[mcbaseball10]

It's not like you were going to change your play wally, I was just providing some info for future reference.

 

[mcbaseball10]

You are doing great so far with your picks. It's just my opinion, but I would think that in conference play that if you are not making adjustments for home court you are going to start seeing negative results.

 

[wal66]

McB, it's a learning process and adapting and evolving with it and the transitions will be ongoing. I appreciate the link you provided and I will be checking it out soon.

 

[Archie]

Not sure if you already use this wally, but might help you in making your "home court advantage adjustments."

http://www.rpiratings.com/homecourtrec.html

thanks Mcbaseball

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

Accounting for home court advantage isn't as simple as just checking a team's record for an arbitrary span of time. However, Dayton's home court advantage is larger than most teams.

 

[mcbaseball10]

The records could be used as a starting point. Do you have a list compiled for each team with certain weights for them MF? I obviously don't have a system, I just had personal experience to use for Dayton and started looking for records.

 

[Archie]

I agree with Monkey, that you need alot more info. but I doubt any of that would be compiled in a list that was accessible to the public. Like the RPI, or SOS of the road opponents or even the ATS records.

but I do think there is some utility at looking at that list.

just keep in mind some big schools play a non-conf sched loaded with easy 20 point victories against cream puffs at home.

but at the same time if you know a certain team's recent history. Its interesting to see how they've done in that time period at home. I mean no matter what the power conference schools are playing half their games at home. Which Make's Pitt's #2 ranking on that list pretty amazing.


although they've lost at home twice this year now.

anyways, good starting point, and good link for the avg rec capper

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

I have calculations built into my model. You have to account for the strength of the teams (both the home team and the teams that they face) in order to account for home court advantage.

 

[wal66]

2-1 (+$80)

When I posted these earlier I would have been happy with a 2-1 night. I figured one of the road dogs would be the loser if I had a loser not the lone fav I posted. On the bright side (other than not having a losing night I mean) is MrMonkey's Spiders pulled off the upset.

 

[Archie]

solid night!!!!!

372 picks to go

 

[MrMonkey]

Can't beat 2-1 night Wally and thanks for the Richmond win! You're might be a good luck charm! :

 

[wal66]

Today's Plays:

Drexel +4.5 (-110)
Villanova -6 (-110)
West Virginia +6.5 (-110)
Delaware +2.5 (-110)
Old Dominion -8 (-110)
Evansville +7 (-110)
Rhode Island +3 (-110)
Air Force +9 (-110)
Illinois St +3 (-110)
Charleston -17 (-110)

Several of these plays were a 1/2 point better line than what is posted at Pinny at the time of posting.

 

[Archie]

big night of action, I love it.

get em Wal!!!!

 

[mcbaseball10]

Good work yesterday Wally. Big card for you tonight,BOL.

 

[MrMonkey]

Good luck Wally!

 

[Cougar Bait]

GL tonight Wally

Do your numbers reflect leading scorer Casey Mitchell being out for WVU? Does your system account for something like this? I am assuming it does.

 

[Archie]

GL tonight Wally

Do your numbers reflect leading scorer Casey Mitchell being out for WVU? Does your system account for something like this? I am assuming it does.

ouch