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The Durito 500

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A lot of games qualify today in college hoops but I can't convince myself to get on board with them. Once again all those that qualify are road teams and while I am sure some of them will win and they do exceed minimum requirements I feel like its pushing my luck.

I doubt that you are interested but just in case here are the games that qualify.............Texas -7, Wisconsin +4, Northern Illinois +6, BYU -12.5, Illinois +4.5, Oklahoma +16, Florida +3.5.

Going with hockey tonight. I don't have a system or a prgram for REGULATION ONLY plays and playing 3 of them tonight is probably a bad idea but it'll not be the first or last bad idea I'll have.

Tonight's Plays:

Canadiens/Rangers OVER 5 (-120) $100 to win $83
Islanders REG ONLY +1/2 (+110) $100 to win $110
Bruins REG ONLY -1/2 (-105) $100 to win $95
Capitals REG ONLY -1/2 (+120) $100 to win $120
 
Good luck Wally!

11111, I figured it out for you. Today will be your #1 day of the Year of Wal! More or less it means that after you got through all the crap of the day that you had to endure, the prize at the end of the day will be worth it!
 
wal66
Tonight's Plays:

Canadiens/Rangers OVER 5 (-120) $100 to win $83 LOSER
Islanders REG ONLY +1/2 (+110) $100 to win $110 WINNER
Bruins REG ONLY -1/2 (-105) $100 to win $95 WINNER
Capitals REG ONLY -1/2 (+120) $100 to win $120 LOSER
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2-2 tonight (+$5), not much of a profit but a profit. The way the basketball games have gone and are going at this time I should have kept the faith and played the program plays.

Durito 500 Record: 34-26-2 (+$559)
 
wal66
A lot of games qualify today in college hoops but I can't convince myself to get on board with them. Once again all those that qualify are road teams and while I am sure some of them will win and they do exceed minimum requirements I feel like its pushing my luck.

I doubt that you are interested but just in case here are the games that qualify.............Texas -7, Wisconsin +4, Northern Illinois +6, BYU -12.5, Illinois +4.5, Oklahoma +16, Florida +3.5.
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:cono:

Texas -7 won by 31
Wisconsin +4 covered by 1
Northern Illinois +6 won outright
BYU -12.5 won by 25
Illinois -4.5 Lost outright
Oklahoma +16 covered by 3
Florida +3.5 won outright

It will be brutal if the decsion to NOT use these program plays are what gets me in the end.
 
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wal66
It will be brutal if the decsion to NOT use these program plays are what gets me in the end.
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That is a kind of thinking that drives inexperienced player mad: dwelling on plays you were considering but declined that would have won. Are you also factoring into your thinking plays you considered but declined that ended up losing? Have there been any of those since this challenge began?
 
Muddy, I was playing the prgram plays through Saturday and then Saturday I had a 10-14 day. Now I knew going into Saturdays games that they were all road temas but I went on blind faith in the program. After having a losing day I was a little shell shocked and started CONSIDERING instead of trusting the system.

This is obviously a mistake someone like myself who is a novice at best at systems, programs whatever you want to call it. An experienced person sticks to what the data tells him and doesn't let rationale to complicate things, or that's what I imagine is the case.
 
January 12, 2011

Today's Play:

Virginia Commonwealth -8.5
Delaware +1
George Mason -4.5
Southen Miss -2.5
Memphis -5.5
Evansville -5.5
Wichita St -3
Indiana St -1.5
Northern Iowa -3.5
Northwestern +1.5
South Carolina +8.5

All plays are $100 to win $90.
 
wal66
Muddy, I was playing the prgram plays through Saturday and then Saturday I had a 10-14 day. Now I knew going into Saturdays games that they were all road temas but I went on blind faith in the program. After having a losing day I was a little shell shocked and started CONSIDERING instead of trusting the system.

This is obviously a mistake someone like myself who is a novice at best at systems, programs whatever you want to call it. An experienced person sticks to what the data tells him and doesn't let rationale to complicate things, or that's what I imagine is the case.
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Speaking for myself, it is a never ending struggle. I have many system-type plays which I could just play blindly. But I can't help but think about them. Next thing you know, I am applying judgment and over-riding some plays.

The important thing for me is to track those over-rides meticulously. If I really am costing myself money it will be right there in my face. The damned thing is that lately, my judgment has been good. Particularly last baseball season, I saved myself a ton of dough with judgment-based over-rides of system plays.

But there have been times in the past where I was much better off not thinking.
 
wal66
January 12, 2011

Today's Play:

Virginia Commonwealth -8.5 WINNER
Delaware +1 LOSER
George Mason -4.5 WINNER
Southen Miss -2.5 WINNER
Memphis -5.5 LOSER
Evansville -5.5 WINNER
Wichita St -3 WINNER
Indiana St -1.5 WINNER
Northern Iowa -3.5 LOSER
Northwestern +1.5 WINNER
South Carolina +8.5 LOSER

All plays are $100 to win $90.
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7-4 night (+$230) and just 3 points kept it from being a 9-2 night.

Durito 500 Record: 41-30-2 (+789)
 
I would like this thread a lot more Wally if you stopped saying stuff like, "just 3 points kept it from being a 9-2 night". I'm not being a dick. I'm just being honest with you. Winning wagers are winning wagesr and losing wagers are losers.

Unless you always tell us about the winners that were almost losers I don't think anyone wants to hear explanations for losses.

Congrats on your record so far. I'm pleasantly suprised so far.
 
Daft, you are entitled to your opinion and I am certain that it is shared by most (if not all) but that is how I express myself. Like you I'm not being a dick but if we were working together I would be sympathetic to your needs in order to work in harmony, since I am doing this alone and since this thread only gets minimal participation I'll likely not change.

When a game loses by a point or a point and a half I need to make sure to check the program and see if that game JUST met the required edge or if it exceeded it. If I set the minimum at 4.5 and I lose a game that fell between 4.5 and 5 it might make a difference where I adjust. It means nothing to anyone who might read this thread but it means something to me as I move forward.
 
Wally, I'm always following you but I won't always comment because I don't really bet NCAAB anymore so I have nothing of value to say about these bets. Although MF gave me 3 NCAAB plays today so I made some cash!! :wally:

I'm happy to see you doing so well and listen to Muddy - don't dwell on 'what ifs' unless you acknowledge your good fortune the other way as well. This used to be one of my biggest problems a few years ago and I would find myself making plays that didn't 100% go with how I make decisions on what to bet but I didn't want to pass up potential winners.

Yeah, not such a good idea.
 
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