They're the public's reaction to the opening lines set by market originators. I'm playing against bookies AND the public.
I do agree that WAR seems to be taken into account when bookies are setting lines - that explains why 2/3 of all games are no-bets for me. FYI I don't limit myself to a certain number of plays every day - I bet literally everything that has at least a 3% edge as per the model. That happens in roughly 1/3 of the games - for the other 2/3, the model's output lands right in the vig.
The beauty of sports betting is that prices vary quite a lot over the lifetime of each market, and from one book to the next, which means there's almost always a +EV price at some point on each and every game. Now, as you can see by looking at the edge %s I post, I'm grinding small bits of value here. I'm not expecting to have a high winrate - I'm just rolling over my bankroll as fast as is safely possible and hoping to catch morsels of value here and there. Volume and compounding "interest" are what I'm after.
Staking/bet sizing is almost more important than the actual bets. Finding +EV bets is all for nothing if you overbet your edge.
