Hooligans Sportsbook

One Bet At A Time

  • Start date •
  • Replies
    108 Replies •
  • Views 2,063 Views
Follow
Next up is SDP FF -114 for an 8% edge. I'm assuming that Giants FF is a loss so (324.16-35)*.08 = just over $23.

$23 to win $20.18 on SDP FF -114. Will add to it if Giants come back (which they won't because Keaton Winn sucks balls.)
 
Boner_18
Have you considered that your model might be trash? For bases are you just converting WAR to runs created/saved and applying a field multiplier?

Not sure this has any edge let alone a 5% edge. I mean, I'm really not sure (not saying it doesn't have an edge either) this is all outside of my area of understanding.
Click to expand...
Matty
lol, yes. That's the whole reason I'm doing this, to actually have the rubber meet the road. At the current winrate it'll take at least a year, maybe two or three, to come to any sort of conclusion.
Click to expand...
MrMonkey has already anointed Matty as the 2024 POTY, so whether the model proves to be profitable or trash, testing it publicly comes with accolades!
 
I'm not entirely sure that the lines are a reflection of public sentiment/bet volume these days. Is that still how things are done? I suspect (with little/no basis) that WAR is heavily included in the line Matty is betting.

I agree the test is the interesting part and I'm all for it. As I've admitted publicly many times I am a terrible gambler.
 
Boner_18
I'm not entirely sure that the lines are a reflection of public sentiment/bet volume these days. Is that still how things are done? I suspect (with little/no basis) that WAR is heavily included in the line Matty is betting.
Click to expand...
They're the public's reaction to the opening lines set by market originators. I'm playing against bookies AND the public.

I do agree that WAR seems to be taken into account when bookies are setting lines - that explains why 2/3 of all games are no-bets for me. FYI I don't limit myself to a certain number of plays every day - I bet literally everything that has at least a 3% edge as per the model. That happens in roughly 1/3 of the games - for the other 2/3, the model's output lands right in the vig.

The beauty of sports betting is that prices vary quite a lot over the lifetime of each market, and from one book to the next, which means there's almost always a +EV price at some point on each and every game. Now, as you can see by looking at the edge %s I post, I'm grinding small bits of value here. I'm not expecting to have a high winrate - I'm just rolling over my bankroll as fast as is safely possible and hoping to catch morsels of value here and there. Volume and compounding "interest" are what I'm after.

Staking/bet sizing is almost more important than the actual bets. Finding +EV bets is all for nothing if you overbet your edge.
 
Matty
They're the public's reaction to the opening lines set by market originators. I'm playing against bookies AND the public.

I do agree that WAR seems to be taken into account when bookies are setting lines - that explains why 2/3 of all games are no-bets for me. FYI I don't limit myself to a certain number of plays every day - I bet literally everything that has at least a 3% edge as per the model. That happens in roughly 1/3 of the games - for the other 2/3, the model's output lands right in the vig.

The beauty of sports betting is that prices vary quite a lot over the lifetime of each market, and from one book to the next, which means there's almost always a +EV price at some point on each and every game. Now, as you can see by looking at the edge %s I post, I'm grinding small bits of value here. I'm not expecting to have a high winrate - I'm just rolling over my bankroll as fast as is safely possible and hoping to catch morsels of value here and there. Volume and compounding "interest" are what I'm after.

Staking/bet sizing is almost more important than the actual bets. Finding +EV bets is all for nothing if you overbet your edge.
Click to expand...
I'm so proud of you.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.