Hooligans Sportsbook

One Bet At A Time

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We ruthless.

This thread should get wild. My 2500-bet simulations go fucking crazy (both ways).

Looks like I don't have a 4pm bet. Will probably only have one evening play.

Go Tigers!

tigers at braves june 19
 
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Next bet is going to be the Mets 1st 5 -104 for a 15% edge. For now I'm going to assume that Tigers are gonna lose, so I'm computing 15% of the remaining balance ($274) which is $41.10. Rounding that down to $40.

$40 to win $38.46 on NYM FF -104. Will add to it if Tigers win.
 
Matty
Next bet is going to be the Mets 1st 5 -104 for a 15% edge. For now I'm going to assume that Tigers are gonna lose, so I'm computing 15% of the remaining balance ($274) which is $41.10. Rounding that down to $40.

$40 to win $38.46 on NYM FF -104. 🟡
Click to expand...
Push - balance is still $274

Adding

$8 to win $12 on OAK FF +150
 
Below are 3 runs of 2500 coin flips at a 55% winrate, which mimics one's results if you were to legitimately have a 10% edge over 2500 sports bets that are around even odds. I didn't cherry-pick the runs, I literally copy-pasted 3 consecutive runs. Starting balance is $250, same as my OBAAT experiment (which I am betting for real, FYI.)

Do I think I'm about to become a billionaire? Of course not. Past a certain point, I would run into limits and logistical issues (i.e. moving large balances across books when funds get low at one of them.)

Do I think I can actually maintain a 10% average edge over 2500 plays? I don't know! Let's find out together. :handshake:
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Have you considered that your model might be trash? For bases are you just converting WAR to runs created/saved and applying a field multiplier?

Not sure this has any edge let alone a 5% edge. I mean, I'm really not sure (not saying it doesn't have an edge either) this is all outside of my area of understanding.
 
Boner_18
Have you considered that your model might be trash?
Click to expand...
lol, yes. That's the whole reason I'm doing this, to actually have the rubber meet the road. At the current winrate it'll take at least a year, maybe two or three, to come to any sort of conclusion.

Boner_18
For bases are you just converting WAR to runs created/saved and applying a field multiplier?
Click to expand...

No. I'm using full-season WAR projections to compute a single-event winrate for each team, then I bang those winrates against each other to make up my own line on every game. It's a bit as if you were to run a videogame simulation thousands/millions of times, to compute your own line (using the same starting pitchers every time.)

I'm basically betting that WAR projections are more efficient than the betting public.
 
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