NFL Teasers Week 3

[Bread]

Absolutely crushed. Glad I only followed 14 of these....got destroyed anyways. 1-12.

DJ Yiddish's losses had to be pretty bad? :(

 

[Blitty]

Absolutely crushed. Glad I only followed 14 of these....got destroyed anyways. 1-12.

DJ Yiddish's losses had to be pretty bad? :(

Oh great..Looks like there isn't gonna be a new orleans mini bash now :(

 

[Bread]

Oh great..Looks like there isn't gonna be a new orleans mini bash now :(

:xpansive:

 

[senco78]

did he have TB in all the teasers?

 

[Bread]

He had TB and Jax in a shitload of them.

I picked the wrong damn weekend (again) to follow people blindly. LOL.

 

[djiddish98]

TB and Jax getting crushed were bad news for these. I'll let everyone know the final damage once all the bets are done.

 

[Cougar Bait]

2 team teaser
[421] INDIANAPOLIS +-110 (B+6)
[422] TOTAL u53-110 (B+6)
(INDIANAPOLIS vrs DENVER)

Winner!

Also have Seahawks ML/Jets ML parlay

So far NFL has been very good to me today, very unusual.

 

[wal66]

Coug's show some restraint, this thread is for those of us who AREN'T winning.

 

[djiddish98]

If the Bears can pull off a +9, This entire experiment will result in a loss of about 13% of BR I think (in my case, 20 bucks)

However, I will continue to do this every week till I either hit the Bodog $1 minimum to bet or completely wipe myself out. WE WILL NOT BE DETERRED BY RANDOM CHANCE!

 

[Blitty]

That $20 bucks you lost equals 2k to bread. Along with a few damaged household items and a battered wife. Give the poor guy some winners for gods sake.

 

[djiddish98]

Edit: Had a post about hedging, but then I changed my mind - I'm going to ride this one out.

 

[djiddish98]

you understand that kelly is designed for uncorrelated plays and these are all very highly correlated, while it may be a +EV even at a kelly multiplier of .25, this is likely -EG.

I just wanted to bump this to apologize for the reckless "advice" I was giving by posting all these teases.

As max points out, there really should have only been bets for the first 12-14 of these, with the rest dropping out to 0% of bankroll due to the correlation. And

selective NFL Teasers are still good bets, but it's hard to nail them down in the correct way.