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NFL Teasers Week 3

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maxdalury
oh ok. you are right, i thought that you weren't using a solver to optimize the stakes, and just using the probability of each individual teaser without taking into account the correlation between the teasers.
Click to expand...

You're right to question the numbers - to clarify, I did not optimize the values for all these bets. Even the simple calculation of 4 teams each at 75% win chance with constant tease amount is a somewhat complex problem to setup.

To calculate with respect to all the potential bets and all the potential tease amounts would be massive calculation. I've simplified things by just betting the appropriate (quarter) kelly amounts and betting every possible combination of games until

A) I run out of bankroll or
B) I don't have an edge anymore

With the previous post, I was just showing with solver that it does maximize growth if you round robin (with a lot of assumptions), which is close to what I'm trying to do.

So take what I've presented here with face value.
 
wal66
I'm thinking this is next level Pro type stuff. I just got my Pro status so I'm not ready for this yet.
Click to expand...

Ha - I'm not a pro by any stretch of the imagination. I've got 155 bucks at play here.

Although the pro label doesn't necessarily bring a lot with it - has anyone read chad millman's blog at ESPN? He has an article every week about "system" picks from "pros", with sample sizes <100 going back to the 80s.
 
durito
Millman is an idiot of epic proportions.
Click to expand...

Some choice wisdom from Big Al:

"Since the early 1980s, NFL teams that haven't had a bye and are coming off of back-to-back upset wins are 28-57 against the spread when playing non-division foes and are not getting more than seven points. Sorry, Steelers fans, but your crew has won two in a row as dogs, are favored by one and are playing a nondivision foe."

Millman always has his caveats at the beginning ("this is just a starting point for sharps") but I feel like they're abusing his blog (and the public) by putting out this terrible advice. I don't have a bone to pick about this game, just the methodology involved.

Or, these guys are serious and I question how much longer they'll last.
 
djiddish98
Some choice wisdom from Big Al:

"Since the early 1980s, NFL teams that haven't had a bye and are coming off of back-to-back upset wins are 28-57 against the spread when playing non-division foes and are not getting more than seven points. Sorry, Steelers fans, but your crew has won two in a row as dogs, are favored by one and are playing a nondivision foe."

Millman always has his caveats at the beginning ("this is just a starting point for sharps") but I feel like they're abusing his blog (and the public) by putting out this terrible advice. I don't have a bone to pick about this game, just the methodology involved.

Or, these guys are serious and I question how much longer they'll last.
Click to expand...

Big Al is Brandon Lang-retarded. He's just a tout.
 
Just put down these, but my macro quit on me. I guess I'll leave as is and see how it goes.
PHP: 
Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	73.74%	Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	73.74%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	73.74%	Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	6
Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	Chicago Bears	73.15%	6
Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	Chicago Bears	73.15%	6
Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	Chicago Bears	73.15%	6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	73.74%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	Chicago Bears	73.15%	6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	73.74%	Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Chicago Bears	73.15%	6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	73.74%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	Chicago Bears	73.15%	6
Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Minnesota Vikings	72.15%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	6
Minnesota Vikings	72.15%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	6
Atlanta Falcons	71.95%	Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	6
Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Minnesota Vikings	72.15%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	6
Atlanta Falcons	71.95%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	6
Baltimore Ravens	71.76%	Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	6
Atlanta Falcons	71.95%	Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	6
Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	Miami Dolphins	71.67%	6
Baltimore Ravens	71.76%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	6
Baltimore Ravens	71.76%	Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	6
Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	Miami Dolphins	71.67%	6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	73.74%	Minnesota Vikings	72.15%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	6
Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	Miami Dolphins	71.67%	6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	73.74%	Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Minnesota Vikings	72.15%	6
New York Giants	74.78%	Kansas City Chiefs	76.14%	Chicago Bears	74.85%	6.5
Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	Seattle Seahawks	71.29%	6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	73.74%	Atlanta Falcons	71.95%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	73.74%	Minnesota Vikings	72.15%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	6
Pittsburgh Steelers	71.22%	Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	6
Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	Denver Broncos	71.20%	6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	73.74%	Atlanta Falcons	71.95%	Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	6
Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	Seattle Seahawks	71.29%	6
Cincinnati Bengals	74.57%	Kansas City Chiefs	76.14%	Chicago Bears	74.85%	6.5
Baltimore Ravens	71.76%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	73.74%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	6
Pittsburgh Steelers	71.22%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	6
New York Giants	74.78%	Cincinnati Bengals	74.57%	Kansas City Chiefs	76.14%	6.5
Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	Seattle Seahawks	71.29%	6
Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	Denver Broncos	71.20%	6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	73.74%	Atlanta Falcons	71.95%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	6
New York Giants	74.78%	Kansas City Chiefs	76.14%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	6.5
Baltimore Ravens	71.76%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	73.74%	Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	6
Pittsburgh Steelers	71.22%	Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	73.74%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	Miami Dolphins	71.67%	6
Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	Denver Broncos	71.20%	6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	73.74%	Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Miami Dolphins	71.67%	6
Minnesota Vikings	72.15%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	Chicago Bears	73.15%	6
Baltimore Ravens	71.76%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	73.74%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	6
Cincinnati Bengals	74.57%	Kansas City Chiefs	76.14%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	6.5
Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Minnesota Vikings	72.15%	Chicago Bears	73.15%	6
New York Giants	74.78%	Kansas City Chiefs	76.14%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	73.74%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	Miami Dolphins	71.67%	6
Atlanta Falcons	71.95%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	Chicago Bears	73.15%	6
Minnesota Vikings	72.15%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	Chicago Bears	73.15%	6
Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	Philadelphia Eagles	70.67%	6
Atlanta Falcons	71.95%	Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Chicago Bears	73.15%	6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	73.74%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	Seattle Seahawks	71.29%	6
Cincinnati Bengals	74.57%	Kansas City Chiefs	76.14%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	6.5
Kansas City Chiefs	76.14%	New York Jets	73.95%	Chicago Bears	74.85%	6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	73.74%	Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Seattle Seahawks	71.29%	6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	73.74%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	Denver Broncos	71.20%	6
Baltimore Ravens	71.76%	Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	Chicago Bears	73.15%	6
Atlanta Falcons	71.95%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	Chicago Bears	73.15%	6
New York Giants	74.78%	Kansas City Chiefs	76.14%	New York Jets	73.95%	6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	73.74%	Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Denver Broncos	71.20%	6
Baltimore Ravens	71.76%	Kansas City Chiefs	74.44%	Chicago Bears	73.15%	6
Dallas Cowboys	74.52%	Miami Dolphins	71.67%	Chicago Bears	73.15%	6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	73.74%	Jacksonville Jaguars	74.29%	Seattle Seahawks	71.29%	6
 
Last edited:
Hit 2 early ones

2 team teaser
[404] BALTIMORE -4-110 (B+6)
[405] TOTAL o26-110 (B+6)
(PITTSBURGH vrs TAMPA BAY

part of this one from yesterday:
2 team teaser
[413] DETROIT +18-110 (B+6)
[9345] STANFORD PKEV (B+6)

PENDING:
3 team teaser
[413] DETROIT +18-110 (B+6) W
[430] CHICAGO +9-115 (B+6) ?
[317] TEMPLE +19-110 (B+6) W

and:
2 team teaser
[421] INDIANAPOLIS +-110 (B+6)
[422] TOTAL u53-110 (B+6)
(INDIANAPOLIS vrs DENVER)
 
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