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Matty Rain's NHL Betting Thread

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Matty
Saturday April 27
CAR -180 :redx:
FLA -125 :redx:
TOR -112 :redx:
DAL -104 :greencheck:
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1-3 -3.17u (-$32.02)

Dallas's Wyatt Johnston saves us from what would've been another reverse bingo.

I don't know what to say. This isn't like MLB where I was using pure mathematical projections at the beginning of the season - my WAR/GAR data is based on the full regular season. Maybe betting the playoffs was a mistake.

Ima keep doing it.

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YTD 23-33 -13.43u $864.25

Sunday April 28
WPG +135
VAN +105
NYR -192
 
Matty
I still think this will work long term, playoffs included. But yeah, brutal stretch.

My worst run ever was 3-27, but in baseball.
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I wonder.

I agree that it'd be +EV theoretically, but I feel like there are other intangibles at play during the playoffs that would be difficult to quantify. For example, adjustments in in-game strategies/line usages, specific team-based series adjustments, impact louder crowds may have on refs, etc.
 
Right. My whole betting philosophy is to ignore more deterministic concepts like that and just let whatever edge I have realize itself over the long term, but I reckon that the life or death nature of playoffs might not lend itself as well to my method. I don't know yet. Best thing I can do is keep plugging away and track/log everything.
 
I like the Canucks play even more now that the public has bet the line into Bolivian. Nucks are using their 3rd string goalie, but their #2 was no better than replacement level. Makes no difference in theory.

Says the guy who's down 13 units in 56 plays.

:potato:
 
One thing that I know is an issue with using my method to bet NHL playoffs is that a lot of guys play while hurt. There's no way for me to quantify how diminished they are, short of watching all the games and making a guess. Whereas in the regular season, anyone with a booboo stays out of the game and I just remove their GAR/WAR value from the model.

But then, most teams are banged up by the end of the playoffs, so maybe it all evens out. But yeah no, it's one pretty strong argument against me betting the playoffs. My method is more of a big-picture one that probably lends itself better to the grind of the regular season.

Just thinking aloud.

Nucks shitting the bed. Soon the Oilers will be the only Canadian team left.
 
Tuesday April 30

 VAN -120

I'm expecting to bet Leafs (currently +140) and Jets (currently EV) but will wait til later as I expect the prices to move up. I might well be wrong though, I suck at anticipating line moves.
 
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