Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

[Matty]

It's a shitty marathon, not a sprint.

 

[Matty]

FULL GAMES
YTD 196-196 -3.07u

FIRST FIVE
YTD 86-66-22 +5.13u

POD 6-6 +0.52u

Kelly bankroll after day 30 - $172.24
New Kelly bet amount - $5.17
Wednesday June 5

FULL GAMES
STL +135 (3.6% edge)
ARI -115 (POD - 10.4% edge)
MIL +160 (1.7% edge)
KCR +108 (5.1% edge)
NYY -170 (2.5% edge)
CHW +168 (4.8% edge)
SDP -164 (4.7% edge)

FIRST FIVE
ARI -120 (6.4% edge)
MIL +150 (5.5% edge)
WSH +136 (3.3% edge)
LAD +118 (8.1% edge)
TBR -118 (2.7% edge)
NYY -160 (5.5% edge)
SDP -160 (4.1% edge)

FULL GAMES
2-4 -2.44u
YTD 198-200 -5.51u

FIRST FIVE
2-5 -3.8u
YTD 88-71-22 +1.33u

POD 6-7 -0.63u

Kelly bankroll after day 31 - $139.98
New Kelly bet amount - $4.2

 

[Matty]

Thursday June 6

FULL GAMES
TOR -110 (15.7% edge - POD candidate)

KCR +140 (6.8% edge)
OAK +125

FIRST FIVE
TOR -130 (7.8% edge)

Back later for the evening games, ttyl GL ✌️

 

[Boner_18]

Curious where you have the line for MIN/NYY. Seems to this homer that the line should he -175+ like the previous 2 games.

 

[Matty]

Curious where you have the line for MIN/NYY. Seems to this homer that the line should he -175+ like the previous 2 games.

+/-120 matchup so Twins would be a play at +125 or better

 

[Matty]

Adding

FULL GAMES
PIT +165 (3.6% edge)
MIN +128 (2.8% edge)
CIN -125 (4.7% edge)

FIRST FIVE
COL +175 (3.3% edge)

That's probably it for today, although the Padres might become a play;

GL today gentlemen

 

[Boner_18]

If I understand your modeling correctly the difference between today's +/- 120 MIN/NYY and yesterday's play on NYY @ -170 is basically the + difference (WAR) from Lopez over Paddack and the - difference from Stroman over Rodon? Assuming lineups are the same.

 

[Matty]

Yes, plus whatever effect the daily-updated WAR has on both batting and pitching. It can move things 2-3 cents from one day to the next.

But yeah from memory I had yesterday's game at +/-177 (now +/-174 using today's WAR data - my fields are dynamic so I lose the previous days' model output. I might want to fix that at some point.)

 

[Vegas Dave]

@Matty, in your records, do you notice any difference in win rates by calculated edge? Like win rate for 1-5% edge, 6-10%, 10%+, etc?

 

[Matty]

@Matty, in your records, do you notice any difference in win rates by calculated edge? Like win rate for 1-5% edge, 6-10%, 10%+, etc?

I haven't been tracking that, but I want to say no. That's one reason I started posting the "POD" to see if the absolute highest edge play will reach a low P-value faster, i.e. demonstrate a more significant winrate faster, than the rest of the plays. But that will take years to prove.

I should really just add the edge % to my spreadsheet. I don't know why I haven't done it yet.

 

[stevek]

Right right

 

[Matty]

Right right

HOW BOUT DEM BLUE JAYS, STEVAY!

 

[Matty]

Adding

FULL GAMES
SDP -115 (3.6% edge)

 

[Matty]

Rockies FF cashes

 

[roguejuror]

So TOR full game was the POD?

 

[Matty]

Yes sorry

 

[roguejuror]

MIN is back from rain delay

 

[Matty]

FULL GAMES
2-4 -2.44u
YTD 198-200 -5.51u

FIRST FIVE
2-5 -3.8u
YTD 88-71-22 +1.33u

POD 6-7 -0.63u

Kelly bankroll after day 31 - $139.98
New Kelly bet amount - $4.2

Thursday June 6

FULL GAMES
TOR -110 (15.7% edge - POD candidate)
KCR +140 (6.8% edge)
OAK +125

FIRST FIVE
TOR -130 (7.8% edge)

Adding

FULL GAMES
PIT +165 (3.6% edge)
MIN +128 (2.8% edge)
CIN -125 (4.7% edge)

FIRST FIVE
COL +175 (3.3% edge)

Adding

FULL GAMES
SDP -115 (3.6% edge)

FULL GAMES
3-4 -0.75u
YTD 201-204 -6.26u

FIRST FIVE
2-0 +2.75u
YTD 90-71-22 +4.08u

POD 7-7 +0.37u

Kelly bankroll after day 32 - $148.38
New Kelly bet amount - $4.45